By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2025-01-06

Syria's de facto new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa -- who recently shed his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani -- was once al-Qaeda's most prominent and powerful figure in Syria.

But he broke with al-Qaeda in 2016, dealing the extremist group a crippling blow that has undermined its power, prestige and influence in Syria and beyond.

Al-Sharaa's association with al-Qaeda began in the early part of the millennium, when he linked up with al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) head Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

He rose up in the group's ranks, and with its support formed and helmed its Syrian offshoot, al-Nusra Front (ANF), in 2012. In 2016 he publicly severed ties with al-Qaeda, and in 2017 merged ANF into a new coalition, Tahrir al-Sham.

Al-Sharra's disavowal of al-Qaeda, which had enabled his rise, exposed the group's underlying frailty by demonstrating that its members lack ideological unity and cohesion -- one of its main boasts, analysts say.

His dramatic ideological transformation unmasked al-Qaeda as a band of bloodthirsty opportunists, international affairs researcher and lecturer Mai Abdul Rahman told Al-Fassel.

Its emirs await the opportunity to split from al-Qaeda to establish their own groups, rather than uniting around its hardline ideology, she said.

Shifting loyalties

Most of the men who joined al-Qaeda have strong criminal tendencies, Abdul Rahman said. This is evidenced by their ruthlessness in carrying out, or ordering, the slaughter of "hundreds, even thousands" of civilians.

It is natural that such men would switch their loyalties to preserve their power, in response to regional and international currents, she added, noting that this would not have happened if their connection to the group had been strong.

There have been numerous defections from al-Qaeda since the group’s inception, strategy analyst and terror group specialist Yahya Mohammed Ali told Al-Fassel.

But the majority of defectors have continued to adhere to al-Qaeda's core ideology, albeit with some modifications, he said, pointing to al-Qaeda offshoots such as the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS).

Al-Sharaa, however, declared his disavowal of al-Qaeda and its ideology, he said.

This dealt a strong blow to al-Qaeda, he said, especially since al-Sharaa was one of the group's first-tier leaders, which is what got him to where he is now.

Al-Sharaa's transformation confirms that belonging to al-Qaeda and embracing its hardline ideology is nothing more than a means for personal gain, Ali said.

The unmasking of this truth will hinder al-Qaeda from spreading its ideology once again or even controlling its remaining "emirs" and elements, as any of them may try to do something similar, following al-Sharaa's example, he said.