By Jana al-Masry | 2025-01-17

Once the world's most feared terror group, al-Qaeda is effectively leaderless and rudderless, with its extreme ideology and strategic failures alienating would-be recruits, according to terrorism experts and intelligence assessments.

More than two years after Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul, al-Qaeda central is rudderless, without an acknowledged leader.

"The era of al-Qaeda in the Middle East and the world has effectively ended," terrorism expert Wael Abdul Mutalib told Al-Fassel.

The group's decline can be attributed to two critical factors: its extreme interpretation of Islamic law and relentless counterterrorism efforts.

In Afghanistan, fewer than a dozen core members remain, with intelligence reports describing the country as "more of a nursing home for al-Qaeda seniors" than an operational base for the extremist group.

Religious extremism has eroded al-Qaeda's standing among Muslims.

"Al-Qaeda's religious discourse represents a complete departure from Islamic principles," former Saudi Islamic affairs deputy minister Tawfiq bin Abdul Aziz al-Sudairy told Al-Fassel.

Among them, "protecting civilians, respecting other faiths, and rejecting the practice of declaring other Muslims as infidels simply because they hold different views," he said.

Al-Qaeda completely violates these and other Islamic teachings, he added, illustrating the fundamental disconnect that has become the group's undoing.

Deepening crisis

The crisis the group is facing has deepened with its de facto leader Saif al-Adel seeking protection in Shia-majority Iran – a move that defies al-Qaeda's foundational ideology.

This creates what Georgetown University's Program on Extremism calls "difficult operational and theological questions."

"Al-Qaeda and the Iranian regime have completely different, even contradictory ideologies, but al-Adel has accepted this humiliation to survive," security analyst Khalil Ahmad Afzali told Al-Fassel.

The US-led war on terrorism has systematically dismantled al-Qaeda's capabilities and territorial control, particularly in the Middle East, Abdul Mutalib said.

Precision drone strikes have decimated its leadership, while counterterrorism efforts have disrupted its ability to attract followers. Meanwhile, the loss of al-Qaeda's Iraqi and Syrian franchises has significantly diminished its influence.

"A decade ago, it had relocated numerous experienced operatives to Syria, only to see most of them killed by drone strikes," CTC Sentinel reported. "If some have survived, their activities have been largely curbed by Tahrir al-Sham."

Once aligned with al-Qaeda's vision, Tahrir al-Sham and other Syrian factions have adopted a more moderate stance to ensure survival and avoid international isolation, rebuffing al-Qaeda's repeated outreach efforts for allegiance.

Global changes have imposed a "new reality" on extremist groups, pushing some toward moderation.

"Any return to extremism will be met with harsh international deterrence," said al-Sudairy, the former Saudi minister.