By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2025-01-13

As Syria's new leader attempts to secure his authority and set about the task of state building, by forming a wider governing coalition and incorporating rival factions into a unified national force, one group remains outside the fence.

The "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) has not been included in the outreach efforts Ahmed al-Sharaa and appointees of the de facto new government have made to allied groups and rival factions in Syria.

Analysts say the pointed exclusion of ISIS from the state building process and from any future armed force underscores the group's weakness.

It makes it clear that ISIS has no influence in "new Syria" and that it is a liability in al-Sharaa's quest to legitimize his rule and secure international support.

Shut out by Syria's new rulers, ISIS is still under fire from US and international coalition forces, which have dealt successive blows to the group's top tier leadership in recent years, accelerating its decline.

The United States in December affirmed its mission to defeat ISIS in Syria is ongoing and that it had more than doubled the number of troops stationed in Syria, from 900 to 2,000.

On December 7, US forces launched over 75 strikes on ISIS targets in central Syria. In a joint operation in January, US and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) captured an ISIS attack cell leader near Deir Ezzor.

"We will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria," US Central Command's Gen. Michael "Erik" Kurilla said in a December 8 statement.

"All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way."

No place for ISIS

"The new Syrian leadership, represented by Tahrir al-Sham and its allies, is presenting itself as moderate," said terror group specialist Yahya Mohammed Ali, noting a shift toward pragmatic governance.

"This new reality will turn the situation upside down, causing ISIS to lose its final pockets of control," he told Al-Fassel.

"Tahrir al-Sham is fully aware that the entire world is against terrorism and that it will face serious consequences if it continues down its previous path," international affairs researcher and lecturer Mai Abdul Rahman told Al-Fassel.

"It will be forced to sever any ties or contacts, whether maintained directly or through loyal factions, with any extremist organizations," she said.

Western diplomats have initiated direct engagement with al-Sharaa, partly to ensure extremist and ISIS-affiliated figures are excluded from the new government, she added.