By Nour Eddin Ali | 2024-05-21

Analysts say there is little possibility of an al-Qaeda resurgence, in light of the extremist group's dispersion and disintegration due to a dearth of top leadership.

"Despite the attempt by some of al-Qaeda's emirs to give the impression that the group is making a strong comeback in some countries, it is still completely out of the game," Egyptian military analyst Abdul Karim Ahmed told Al-Fassel.

After the elimination of its first-line leadership, al-Qaeda has "lost the great power it once possessed due to the disagreements between the current leaders, each of whom is trying to control the rest," he said.

The group's floundering "and the failure of its leaders to take heed or accept the reality of the loss it has suffered have moved it from being classified as a real threat to the world to being a marginal one," he added.

"The emergence of al-Qaeda cells in some countries is nothing but the desperate acts of a number of cells and elements who know they are being hunted and are named on terrorist lists," Ahmed said.

"They have no choice but to make these desperate moves to preserve their lives."

Al-Qaeda's disintegration

The inability of al-Qaeda's leaders, who are scattered across a number of countries, to reach a unified position on anything confirms the group was not ideological in nature, said Syrian journalist Mohammed al-Abdullah.

"It was never how it was portrayed, as following a certain doctrine," he said. "When its leaders fell, the group fell with them, especially with the killing of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri."

Despite the announcement more than once of the appointment of a new emir for the group, the divisions continued to arise in succession, within the main group and through the emergence of splinter groups, he said.

"Each followed a path that suited its own leadership," al-Abdullah said.

"The only thing the group has left, is, unfortunately, the fact that some countries, including Iran, are hosting its leadership," he said.