By Samah Abdul Fattah and AFP | 2024-12-06

Key Syrian regime backers Russia and Iran have failed to halt the advance of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, which continues to gain ground after seizing Aleppo in a shock offensive that began November 30.

The Syrian regime and its backers appear to have been caught off guard by the offensive, with observers pointing to Syria's complacency, Russia's distraction with its war on Ukraine and Iran's preoccupation with domestic woes.

Tehran spent billions over the years to prop up the Syrian regime, but all that support appears to have gone for naught.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies are meanwhile under fire in Syria and in a state of disarray and chaos.

Tahrir al-Sham advanced into Aleppo "without any significant pushback from regime forces," Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.

"It is strange to see regime forces being dealt such big blows despite Russian air cover and early signs that Tahrir al-Sham was going to launch this operation," he said.

The extremist alliance's rapid advance has "raised many questions about whether Russia and Iran abandoned the Syrian regime in this battle," military analyst Yahya Mohammed Ali told Al-Fassel.

Aleppo had been "under the control of Russia and Iran," he said.

Syria's allies appear to have been preoccupied with "interests that have become more important than preserving the areas that are under the regime's control," he said.

This weakening of support will stymie any regime counteroffensive, he added, and "may reshuffle the cards again on the military level."

Reliance on Russia and Iran

Syria's "reliance on Russia and Iran" and its refusal to move forward with a 2015 United Nations peace process "created the conditions now unfolding," US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said in a statement.

The British Foreign Office likewise noted that the Syrian regime "has created the conditions for the current escalation through its ongoing refusal to engage in a political process and its reliance on Russia and Iran."

"Russia's presence has thinned out considerably, and quick reaction air strikes have limited utility," Aaron Stein, president of the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, told AFP.

Speedy insurgent advances are "a reminder of how weak the regime is and, perhaps, how they have grown complacent in the last couple of years," he said.

"Aleppo seems to be lost for the regime, and unless they manage to mount a counteroffensive soon, or unless Russia and Iran send much more support, I don't think the government will get it back," said Aron Lund of the Century International think tank.

"A government without Aleppo is not really a functional government of Syria," he added.