By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2025-01-03

Syria's de facto new leader has used al-Qaeda for his own purposes, forming and then breaking his alliance with the extremist group in service of his own agenda and making a mockery of terrorism's "mother ship" in the process, analysts say.

Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, who recently traded in his nom de guerre for his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, publicly broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, when he led its former Syrian affiliate, al-Nusra Front, which he founded in 2011.

In 2017, he merged al-Nusra Front into the new Tahrir al-Sham alliance.

Al-Sharaa had pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2013, swearing loyalty to its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in order to break with the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

As the leader of Tahrir al-Sham, al-Sharaa purged veteran extremists from decision-making positions and routinely skirmished with other extremist factions in an effort to subsume, banish or eradicate them.

There are even suggestions that Tahrir al-Sham exposed the hideouts of ISIS leaders assassinated in Idlib province to boost its more moderate image.

Analysts say al-Sharaa's rapid ideological transformation -- or at least the public face of it -- shows he used al-Qaeda to further his own goals. It also points to al-Qaeda's underlying weakness, especially in Syria.

"Al-Joulani jumped from the al-Qaeda ship to preserve his own kingdom," political analyst Abdul Nabi Bakkar told Al-Fassel.

In addition to trading in his nom de guerre, he completely changed his appearance and began promoting himself as a moderate, and recently announced the impending dissolution of Tahrir al-Sham, Bakkar said.

Huge blow to al-Qaeda

There is no doubt, Bakkar said, that prior to his break with the group, al-Sharaa was the most influential al-Qaeda emir on the ground in Syria, and that his disavowal and further efforts to distance himself has dealt al-Qaeda a huge blow.

Al-Qaeda has lost a key supporter it once relied on to ensure the security of its emirs and elements in Syria, he said.

It now faces the loss of communication between its elements in Syria and those in Iraq, which will weaken what remains of its military power, he added.

Al-Sharaa's transformation also underscores al-Qaeda's failure, he said, as it shows he had found no way to continue his path towards becoming a credible statesman under the group's auspices.

"I think it's primarily just good politics," Century International fellow Aron Lund told AFP, noting that al-Sharaa's ideological transformation may not be entirely sincere -- "but it's the smart thing to say and do right now."