By Omar | 2025-01-28

KABUL -- Al-Qaeda's relative silence in recent years is a sign that the group is weakening on the ground and failing in its online propaganda efforts, according to multiple international assessments.

In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda can claim no more than 60 members, most of whom are senior figures located in Kabul, Kandahar, Helmand and Kunar, a 2023 United Nations (UN) Security Council report found.

In June, a UN sanctions monitoring team reported that al-Qaeda lacks the capacity to conduct large-scale external operations.

The downturn accelerated after the death of former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in 2022.

"Al-Zawahiri's death had a major impact on the propaganda production of the al-Qaeda 'core', and has considerably reduced its media presence to perceived key events," a 2024 Europol study noted.

This diminished media presence reflects a deeper ideological crisis within the group, according to regional experts.

'No agenda or values'

"Al-Qaeda has no agenda or values to fight for. Its previous goals and values, which it used to deceive Muslims, no longer carry any weight within Islamic communities," said Herat-based political analyst Jawad Binesh.

"All of al-Qaeda's activities worldwide are reduced to illegal trades and criminal activities. Wherever it operates, the group is involved in arms trafficking, extortion, assassinations and mafia activities," he said.

The group's survival has become the primary concern for remaining leaders, according to Mohammad Khalil Noori, a retired Afghan colonel in Afghanistan's Herat province.

"The masterminds and central leadership of al-Qaeda have been eliminated in recent years in military operations by US-led coalition forces," Noori said.

"Al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in Yemen, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and even Africa."

The retreat of the current leader to Iran follows years of sustained military pressure and reflects the group's deep security fears, he said.

Deepening isolation

"Al-Qaeda has lost credibility and been marginalized not only among communities and its supporters but also among other terrorist groups," said Herat-based political analyst Abdul Qader Kamel.

In a bid to remain relevant, it has provided financial support to other extremist groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

"One could say that al-Qaeda is trying to buy status and credibility by paying money to terrorist groups, but so far, these efforts have been fruitless," Kamel said.

The group's isolation continues to deepen, said Herat-based university professor Abdul Karim Nazari.

"Al-Qaeda, as an extremist terrorist group with a dark history, is not accepted by anyone," he said. "We see that some branches of al-Qaeda in the Middle East have separated from the main body."

The group's leaders are focused on making money through criminal means, he said, and are "completely rejected."