By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2024-12-27

The rapid collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad on December 8 marked the end of more than 50 years of authoritarian rule and validated US and international warnings about the perils of depending on Russian protection.

US President Joe Biden declared the collapse "a fundamental act of justice."

He outlined Washington's commitment to Syria's democratic transition via regional cooperation, counterterrorism operations and constitutional reform led by the United Nations (UN).

Moscow had primarily served its own interests in Syria, rather than helping to build a stable state, activist Mohamed al-Bayek told Al-Fassel.

The fragility of this partnership became evident at Kuweires air base in Aleppo province, where Syrian forces abandoned critical military assets -- including aircraft and air defense systems -- without resistance, Foreign Policy reported.

"Even more concerning was the fall of al-Safira, one of the regime's largest military-industrial complexes and a critical defense manufacturing center," it added.

Despite years of military cooperation, Russia failed to build a professional, self-reliant Syrian military force, military expert Wael Abdul Muttalib told Al-Fassel.

While Russia supplied sophisticated weaponry, he said, Syrian military units remained largely outdated and unprepared.

"Even the air defense system was under complete Russian control, with no Syrian army officers having any control over it," he noted.

Russia's abandonment

"Most residents did not expect Russia to abandon the regime so quickly," al-Bayek said, noting that Russia's deterrent capabilities, including air power and missile systems, could have repelled or delayed the attack.

But as soon as the tide started to turn, "Russia abandoned the regime immediately, without any serious attempt to engage in military operations or support the regime's armed factions," he said.

While the Atlantic Council documented Russia's continued airstrikes against al-Assad's opponents from its Syrian air base through early December, these efforts proved insufficient to prevent the regime's fall.

Russia has evacuated vessels from its Tartous naval base and equipment from its Hmeimim air base, and is shifting some assets to Africa, flight data and satellite imagery analyzed by RFE/RL appear to show.

The loss is "a huge slap in the face for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," whose intervention aimed to demonstrate Russia's great power status, Middle East expert Phillip Smyth told RFE/RL.

With Russia now harboring al-Assad and his family in Moscow, albeit with a notable lack of warmth, its military presence in Syria hangs in balance.

The Syrian regime's demise meanwhile reveals the ultimate cost of its misplaced trust in Russian protection.

"The behavior of the Russian army towards the Syrian army, which relied on Russian capabilities, could be considered a betrayal from a military and tactical perspective," Abdul Muttalib said.