By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2024-07-02

Russia and Iran have formed a partnership of convenience based on mutual interests and economic pressure that analysts predict will end badly, especially in areas where they have to share the spoils of their adventurism.

In the Middle East, Moscow has for decades harbored dreams of establishing Russian hegemony, Iranian affairs researcher Sheyar Turko told Al-Fassel.

"Russia views Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliates to be merely intruders," he said.

In Syria, both have been supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

"The mutual interest-based relationship between Russia and Iran is only a temporary one," he said, predicting the alliance will meet its end in Syria, where "each side ... is actually trying to undermine the other in more than one area."

Harm to civilians

"Neither Russia nor Iran will allow the other side to seize control of Syria and its natural and strategic resources," said political analyst Abdul Nabi Bakkar.

The Syrian regime divided the country's resources "between Russia and Iran, without consideration of the interests of its people, in exchange for its survival," he told Al-Fassel.

Iran and Russia have harmed the Syrian people -- Russia through its indiscriminate bombing campaigns and Iran through the actions of its militias and its attempts to effect demographic change in areas it seeks to control.

Russia "tested" more than 320 types of weapons during the Syrian campaign, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed in 2021.

Russian bombs were responsible for 7,700 civilian deaths -- a quarter of them children -- between September 2015 and April 2018, per the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Meanwhile, Iran is "providing Russia with drones to use against Ukraine," Turko said, noting that Moscow is using these drones to attack Ukraine's urban centers and civilian infrastructure, including power stations.

Top Russian officials have reportedly visited Iran in recent months to finalize a deal to purchase Iranian ballistic missiles.

Underlying distrust

With few other allies, Russia has become more dependent on Iran for military assistance, analysts said. But the underlying distrust has never fully dissipated.

"There are many reasons why Russia and Iran are not formal allies," the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center's media platform, Carnegie Politika, said in a February 27 report.

"Their rulers don't trust one another; they compete with each other on energy markets; and Iran's revolutionary ideology sits uneasily with Russia's conservatism."

As Russia and Iran continue to leverage their shaky alliance to circumvent sanctions and bolster their military capabilities, analysts say, the short-term gains will come at the expense of long-term stability.