By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2024-06-11

There has been a noticeable cooling in relations between the Iranian and Syrian regimes as a result of various regional and international changes, analysts said.

This is driven in part by money: Syria needs funds to cover the cost of reconstruction, while its traditional ally, Iran, is facing major economic problems.

It is also driven by politics: the Syrian regime knows that if it allows itself to be drawn into the Israel-Hamas war alongside the Iran-aligned so-called "axis of resistance," it will suffer severe consequences, said political analyst Abdul Nabi Bakkar.

"It is also unable financially, logistically or militarily to engage in such an adventure that would destroy what is left of its institutions, and may even spell its total demise," he told Al-Fassel.

The support Syria used to receive from Iran and Russia has become a thing of the past, he added, as those two countries are mired in wars and political and economic crises that prevent them from assisting Syria in any meaningful way.

Meanwhile, the Gulf states are in a better position to help Syria.

But any aid from the Gulf states will be conditional on a number of things, including Syria's commitment to the peace process and its abstention from any kind of war, including the Israel-Hamas war, he said.

"The Gulf states prefer the language of peace at the present time," Bakkar said.

Staying out of the Iranian orbit is another unspoken condition for the restoration of Syrian-Gulf ties and the provision of reconstruction aid, he said.

The keys to regional peace, security and stability are strongly linked to separating the IRGC from its affiliates, which is actually happening on the ground, Iranian affairs researcher Sheyar Turko told Al-Fassel.

In Syria, this shift signals that the country's reliance on Iran is on the wane.