By Waleed Fateh | 2023-12-13

Through their support for Iran, Russia and China have been contributing to the instability that is roiling the Middle East, with Iranian proxies across the region carrying out regular attacks and acts of terrorism, analysts said.

Iran is putting the region at risk and is "keeping the atmosphere fraught with tension" via its various proxies, said political researcher Abdul Nabi Bakkar.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) affiliates and allied armed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Yemen have been carrying out attacks across the region amid the Israel-Hamas war, he told Al-Fassel.

Multiple drones and missiles have been launched from Yemen by the Houthis, and from Lebanon by Hizbullah and Hamas, while US forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked by Iran-backed militias operating in these countries.

Countries where Iranian proxies operate have been experiencing insecurity and political tension for decades that have rendered them unstable, he said, "with the state of relative instability spilling over to all the countries in the region."

The outbreak in October of the latest Israel-Hamas war has further highlighted the destructive role of Iran -- which has financed, equipped and armed the terrorist group and has provided its fighters with combat training.

The new war in Gaza has threatened to derail the Yemen peace process, and has ignited the Lebanon-Israel border, where Hamas and Hizbullah have fired salvos of drones and missiles into Israel, sparking retaliatory fire.

The Israel-Hamas war also has undermined normalization efforts between the Gulf states and Israel, which were designed to foster greater regional security and prosperity, analysts told Al-Fassel.

Russian and Chinese support for Iran

As Iran and its proxies cause mayhem in the Middle East, the Islamic Republic's key allies, Russia and China, have continued to support it, analysts said.

Far from backing off, they even appear to be leaning into this alliance, even in the military arena, they said.

Russia and Iran have "burgeoning" military ties, US 9th Air Force commander Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich said in September, noting that shared drone technology was a particular concern.

There is ample evidence that Iran has been supplying Russia with drones, which Russia has used in its attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

The United States has said that in addition to providing Russia with drones, Iran is helping Moscow build a plant to manufacture drones.

Iran also has finalized arrangements for the delivery of Russian-made Sukhoi (Su)-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 jet trainers and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported on November 28.

Meanwhile, the United States in March blacklisted five Chinese companies and one individual for supplying components to Iran drone builders.

And in June it blacklisted a network operating in Iran, China and Hong Kong that it said was supplying material for Iran's ballistic missile programme.

Drones manufactured by Iran are in regular use in Syria, where both Iran and Russia have a strong presence in support of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

In November, US intelligence sources said the Russian mercenary Wagner Group may provide a Russian-made missile defense system to Lebanese Hizbullah.

China has remained a staunch ally of Iran, even as the Islamic Republic's actions have made it a pariah on the international stage.

In March 2021, Iranian and Chinese officials signed a 25-year "strategic co-operation pact" -- a $400 billion deal to fund infrastructure projects and increase China's global sway.

China also has been seeking to expand its own military and economic footprint in the region, not just through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) but also by establishing a covert military presence in key ports.

Earlier this year, leaked intelligence documents revealed that China had resumed construction at Khalifa port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where it is reportedly building a secret military facility.

Emirati military sources said the associated Chinese container terminal also poses a long-term threat because it provides a potential platform for espionage activities.

"The history of the Middle East region is rife with interventions carried out by both Russia and China," King Saud University political scientist Abdullah al-Dakhil told Al-Fassel.

"These interventions, initially carried out under the pretext of supporting leftist and communist armed groups, contributed to "a wave of unrest and wars in the 1970s and 1980s, the consequences of which still linger to this day," he said.

US commitment to regional security

The United States meanwhile has been demonstrating its commitment to regional stability on the military and diplomatic fronts.

It has strengthened its force posture in the region to deter any state or non-state actors from escalating the crisis beyond Gaza, sending in two carrier strike groups, a Marine expeditionary unit and other military assets.

As part of this effort the US Navy guided missile destroyer USS Carney shot down on December 3 three Iran-made drones fired by the Houthis, in the Red Sea.

For more than 50 years, the United States has sought to defuse conflicts and support security and stability in the Middle East by building strategic relationships with regional partners and prioritizing diplomacy.

"The United States and its allies have built strategic and close relations with most countries in the region with the aim of ensuring lasting security and peace," Bakkar, the Egyptian political researcher said.

Recent US efforts to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading are an example of this diplomacy in action, with diplomatic efforts also focused on negotiations to release the hostages Hamas is holding.

Though China has put itself forward as a Middle East peacemaker, analysts have said it lacks experience as a conflict mediator and that it cannot act with impartiality in the Middle East because of its relationship with Hamas ally Iran.

Meanwhile, Russia has continued to welcome Hamas, even after its terrorist attack of October 7, with Hamas in return giving the release of Russian hostages "special attention," according to a December 2 report in the Washington Post.