By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2023-11-21

Despite its decades-old anti-Israel propaganda, Iran has done little beyond talk in support of Palestinians amid the current conflict in Gaza, observers say.

A call for Israel's destruction, the propaganda the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has spread for years -- mainly by way of a slogan -- implies solidarity with the Palestinians and with Hamas.

However, as the war in Gaza has escalated to an unprecedented level, Tehran is standing by and pressuring its affiliates in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen to avoid expanding the scope of military operations.

The Iranian regime has directed its proxies in these countries to settle for limited responses, which has sparked dissatisfaction in the region's popular and military circles.

Cairo-based Yemeni journalist Mona Mohammed said, "Since it seized power in Iran, the IRGC has launched anti-Israel slogans, calling for its destruction as its main political rhetoric."

The slogans have been widely popularized in some Middle Eastern countries, setting the destruction of Israel as the primary goal of the Iran-backed groups that have a presence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and some Gulf states, she added.

'Unenviable position'

"Over four decades after the Islamic Revolution, Iran finds itself in an unenviable position," Mohammed told Al-Fassel.

The events currently unfolding in Gaza were expected to trigger Iran's direct intervention, she said, but "in reality, Iran's stance is a virtual political and military freeze."

"Given Iran's restricted capabilities, even its regional intervention -- via its proxies -- has been very limited in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen," Mohammed said.

"Dissatisfaction prevails among the popular and military bases in areas where the IRGC proxies have a presence, as they have settled for political responses, speeches and some useless or failed military responses, such as the missiles launched by the Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen," she added.

"Iran has failed to act in the face of the first true test to achieve the goals that it has raved about for years, and has used for recruiting tens of thousands of youth in the Middle East region."

Tehran's recent and current behavior has exposed its lies as it has turned a blind eye to the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians and Hamas members, the journalist said.

Iran's trap for itself

Lebanese journalist Khalil al-Qadi said since the start of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation (Hamas's October 7 terrorist attack on Israel that sparked the current war in Gaza), the Iranian regime has supported Hamas only in words, and has issued general threats with an emphasis on a peaceful solution and a ceasefire.

In light of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's remarks and communications with his Arab counterparts, "we can conclude that Iran will not intervene militarily," he told Al-Fassel.

Al-Qadi said the world wants peace, and a secure and stable eastern Mediterranean region.

"This means ending the existence of hotheads, especially groups that revolve in the orbit of countries like Iran," he added.

Syrian journalist Mohammed al-Abdullah said, "Iran has set a trap for itself. After years of issuing threats to destroy Israel and protect the Palestinians, it has found itself in a situation that calls for two things, and only two things."

The first, he said, is supporting Hamas -- a party that could be totally dismantled by the Israeli army.

The second -- and this is what is currently happening -- is Iran settling solely for making statements, with strict orders to its affiliates to exercise restraint and avoid expanding the ongoing operations, al-Abdullah told Al-Fassel.

As Iran well knows that any move to expand the current conflict would lead to igniting the entire Middle East region and may even involve other countries, its continued stance will very likely be the second option, he added.

Tehran cannot bear the financial, political or military costs of an involvement in the current conflict, especially as efforts to normalize ties between Israel and a number of Arab countries have succeeded, said Al-Abdullah.

These countries are now bound by strategic alliances guiding them to take firm positions against direct Iranian intervention, he told Al-Fassel.

The ongoing conflict will continue to keep Iran silent, possibly resulting in drastically downsizing its regional role, if not eliminating it altogether, said al-Abdullah.

This may be "the beginning of the end of the Iranian regime's regional presence, as the region has lost its confidence both in the IRGC's leadership, and that of [Iranian leader] Ali Khamenei himself."