By Nohad Topalian and Noureddin Omar | 2023-10-17

BEIRUT -- The recent developments in Israel and the Gaza strip have put Gulf countries that have normalized relations with Israel in a difficult position, as they have to walk a tightrope between support for their new partner and a pro-Palestinian public opinion.

As analysts predict a long and violent response from Israel in Gaza, the position faced by those nations is expected to become increasingly troublesome.

But many observers say the normalization accords are a necessity for the establishment of permanent peace in the Middle East and as a shield against Iranian threats.

In the wake of the Palestinian militant group Hamas's surprise attack into southern Israel on October 7, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) condemned the kidnapping of Israeli hostages in a break with other regional players, AFP reported.

The oil-rich state was the first Gulf country to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020 under the US-brokered Abraham Accords, followed by Bahrain.

The United States had also been working in recent months toward an agreement that would normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But those talks have now been suspended in light of the conflict, a source familiar with the discussions told AFP on Saturday (October 14).

Now more than ever, the normalization of relations among countries of the Fertile Crescent region -- an area that covers southern Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Egypt and parts of Türkiye and Iran -- is "vital to bringing stability to this region," said political writer Mohammed Salam.

The region has been "in a state of war and antagonism for more than 170 years," he told Al-Fassel.

'Permanent peace in the interest of all'

What is happening in Gaza "delays the normalization process in the region but should not stop it," economic writer Antoine Farah told Al-Fassel.

"The normalization process must move forward, and the tragedy of this war may be an incentive to provide opportunities for a comprehensive peace in the region that is in the interest of all peoples," he said.

Farah said it is expected that normalizing Arab countries will face a dilemma because of the "hideousness of the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel."

"Naturally, this matter embarrasses the Arab regimes, but the war will stop, and when the cannons go silent, there will be negotiations to return things to normal, because everyone realizes that permanent peace is in the interest of all."

"Confronting terrorist entities that have no interest in peace is required," he said, noting that permanent peace is based on granting all peoples their rights.

"If comprehensive peace is achieved, the region will witness a major economic revival, and the volume of local and foreign investments will increase significantly," he said.

Yasser al-Muhanna, a professor at the College of Business and Economics at Qassim University in Saudi Arabia, said that unstable conditions alienate investors and drive away capital.

"Peace and war are directly linked to the economic process," he told Al-Fassel.

"The Middle East region has been greatly affected by the security collapses and battles that take place every now and then in Gaza, Lebanon or Syria. With Israel being the common link to the peace process, it is better for the Arab states to keep the lines of communication open to restore calm as quickly as possible," he said.

"The Arab region is witnessing a huge investment and economic renaissance. Oil-rich countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have begun to diversify sources of income, and Egypt is building modern infrastructure to attract investments," al-Muhanna said.

The potential for gas explorations in the region also has the potential to cause a financial boom, even for small countries like debt-ridden Lebanon, he said.

'Must work to stop war'

"Hamas carried out a planned operation and Israel responded to it. Bloodshed begets bloodshed. Therefore, the settling of scores cannot be ended with a long round of war, but rather we must all work to stop it," said former MP Fares Souaid, director of Saydet al-Jabal (Our Lady of the Mountain) Gathering.

"Arab authorities, led by Saudi Arabia, are called upon to arrange a political settlement based on the Beirut Peace Initiative," he added.

The Beirut Peace Initiative, which emanated from the Arab summit of March 2002 in Beirut, stipulated the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty over Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

"There is no alternative to peace between all countries of the region," Souaid said, calling on the Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to "cooperate with the United States and turn the violence into peace."

Urging calm and adopting moderate discourses will keep the door open to pursue the peace process at a later stage, retired Emirati army officer Abdullah al-Ameri told Al-Fassel.

The Middle East region has no choice but to reach a peaceful resolution to the conflict that satisfies all parties, he said.

"It is illogical and unnatural for the region to remain like a volcano that explodes every now and then and claims lives," he said.

Al-Ameri warned against the conflict spreading to other countries, including Syria and Lebanon, and causing tensions in countries such as Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

These states are making great diplomatic efforts to calm the situation, and "any security and political shocks will set these efforts back years," he added.

"Now is the time for normalizing states to use whatever capital they have with Israel to positively influence policy," Kuwaiti analyst Bader Al-Saif told AFP.