By Al-Fassel | 2024-06-03

Al-Qaeda poses an increasing threat to global security, analysts warn, pointing to a new propaganda campaign that incites the terrorist group's followers to carry out attacks.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the group's Yemen branch, "is at the forefront of the campaign as the most aggressive in encouraging violence," the Soufan Center reported May 28.

Given its stated intent and history of violent attacks, "AQAP poses a considerable threat of inspired and directed operations," it said.

AQAP's "Inspire" video series specifically aims to incite supporters to commit acts of violence, according to the report.

"AQAP has also disseminated step-by-step video instructions online for bomb-making and placing an explosive device on civilian airliners," the report said.

A December video "details how to evade airport security, the most effective places to deploy the explosives, and how to properly prepare and disseminate claims of responsibility 'so as to achieve the greatest success'," it said.

A video released in February elaborates on "the religious, ideological, historical, and moral justification" for carrying out terrorist attacks.

The video calls for further attacks on "disbelievers," civilians, military personnel, politicians and media figures, according to the Soufan Center.

In April, AQAP followed up with an "Inspire Guide" profiling private military contractors operating in Yemen, providing details on their whereabouts and urging supporters to assassinate them.

Counter-terrorism pressure

AQAP has persisted as a threat in Yemen and the region, but has faced "setbacks and leadership losses due to sustained counter-terrorism pressure," a panel of United Nations experts said in a July 2023 report.

The US military has significantly weakened al-Qaeda via a drone campaign against its leadership in Syria and elsewhere that has been waged over many years, analysts said.

"The United States, with its 'over the horizon' counter-terrorism capabilities, can decapitate al-Qaeda's leadership, evidenced by the killing of Osama bin Laden and [Ayman] al-Zawahiri," the Lowy Institute reported May 27.

A US military special operations unit killed bin Laden, al-Qaeda's founder and first emir, in Pakistan in 2011.

Al-Zawahiri, the group's second emir, was killed in a US drone strike in Afghanistan in 2022.

His death dealt al-Qaeda a blow from which it has yet to recover. With its leadership in disarray, it was many months before the group named a successor.

Al-Qaeda's current leader, Saif al-Adel, is believed to be sheltering in Iran, further underscoring the alignment of goals shared by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and al-Qaeda.

The United States is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information on al-Adel.