By Nohad Topalian | 2025-09-24

Hizbullah’s refusal to hand over its weapons stands as direct defiance of the state, perpetuating instability and threatening peace in the region, experts say.

In early August, the Lebanese government asked the army to prepare a plan to disarm groups, and Army Chief Rudolf Heikal presented that plan on September 5.

According to Foreign Minister Youssef Raji, the plan outlines five stages, beginning with the disarmament of areas south of the Litani River within three months, before extending to Beirut and eastern Bekaa.

However, no clear timetable has been set for the later stages.

Outright defiance of authority

Despite this move toward reasserting state authority, Hizbullah has rejected the plan outright.

"Hizbullah’s allegiance to Iran continues, undermining Lebanese sovereignty," political analyst Michel Shamai said.

"Hizbullah’s defiance of the Lebanese state has a geo-political dimension beyond Lebanon’s borders," he added. "Its consequences will be extremely grave, as Lebanon won’t be spared from Israeli fire if Hizbullah persists in its defiance and refusal to integrate into state institutions."

Shamai said that even after suffering heavy losses, Hizbullah continues to expose Lebanon to instability.

"In the new era, Lebanon has committed itself to restoring its institutions and rebuilding the state. It cannot embark on institutional revival if Hizbullah keeps undermining sovereignty," he said.

"There is now a political consensus behind the government’s decisions to disarm Hizbullah," Shamai said.

Hizbullah is no longer the force it once was, he said, adding that "its supply routes and networks for smuggling weapons, money, and drugs have been almost completely cut off."

Regional complications

Experts warned that Hizbullah’s resistance to disarmament is not only a domestic challenge but also a regional threat.

"Hizbullah is built around its weapons and armed wing, serving as an extension of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Lebanon," said Ali Khalifa, coordinator of the Liberation for Lebanon movement.

The group’s strategy combines "ideological indoctrination to train fighters, a black-market economy, and a cultural narrative serving the [Iranian] Supreme Leader and the weapons project," he said.

"That is why Hizbullah is desperate not to hand over its weapons -- without them, it has no existence," he added, pointing out that "the group is still trying to renew its military structure."

Khalifa also highlighted the government’s growing efforts to curb Hizbullah’s power.

"Weapons shipments bound for Hizbullah from Syria are being intercepted, and the Lebanese army is seizing them," he said.

The government’s decisions, Khalifa said, are "pivotal for reclaiming state authority and confronting Hizbullah with the force of legitimacy, imposing sovereignty over it as an outlawed group."