By Nohad Topalian | 2025-02-19

BEIRUT — Hizbullah's political influence is waning in what Lebanese politicians are calling "new Lebanon" following significant setbacks in its battle with Israel and the collapse of its key regional ally, the former Syrian regime.

The Iran-backed party's position has weakened dramatically after losing its chief Hassan Nasrallah, his likely successor Hashem Safieddine, and numerous other top-tier party leaders, Lebanese politicians said.

The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime has further compromised Hizbullah by cutting off crucial Iranian supply routes for weapons and funding, including channels used for drug manufacturing and trafficking, politicians said.

This has created a "golden opportunity" for the government of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf to restore state sovereignty and end Hizbullah's grip on state institutions, said Other Choice Movement head Alfred Mady.

"Hizbullah should not have a place in the new Lebanon" unless it renounces the Guardian of the Jurist doctrine, which calls for loyalty to the "Guardian Jurist" -- Iranian leader Ali Khamenei -- over loyalty to Lebanon, he told Al-Fassel.

"It must back off and not embroil the Lebanese in more tragedies," he said.

Hizbullah and Israel agreed to a ceasefire on November 27. Under the terms of the truce, the Iran-backed party must withdraw its forces to the north of the Litani River and surrender its weapons to the Lebanese army.

Hizbullah's diminished role

According to political analyst Mustafa Fahs, Hizbullah "may be finished militarily" after receiving a "decisive blow" that has undermined its narrative of "protecting" southern Lebanon.

After two decades of dominance, the party's influence over political decisions has "significantly declined," he told Al-Fassel.

"Hizbullah has become like any Lebanese party representing just a portion of a sect, taking its natural size in the new Lebanon."

With Hizbullah's diminished role, Lebanon appears poised for significant political transformation, Fahs said.

The shift in power dynamics is evident in the new government formation, which Janoubia editor-in-chief Ali al-Amin has described as "historic" -- the first in 20 years to be free from Hizbullah's control and blocking third.

Salam emphasized this change in a February 11 state television interview, stating that "the Lebanese state must extend its authority through its own forces across the entire territory, from the Nahr al-Kabir to Naqoura."

Public sentiment also has turned against Hizbullah.

Lebanese citizens are increasingly protesting against Hizbullah's political dominance and demanding its disarmament, according to Al-Arabiya analyst Len Khodorkovsky.

Recent Arab Barometer polling shows 67% of Lebanese citizens now view Hizbullah as a destabilizing force, up from 48% in 2021.