By Al-Fassel | 2023-11-02

Lebanon and the world are awaiting Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Friday (November 3) on Israel's war against Hamas, with many wondering what the embattled Iran-backed ideologue will say amid increasing worries over the war escalating.

Nasrallah will be saying the speech in a dangerous local climate.

The southern border with Israel is seeing increasing clashes between militants and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), risking expanding the scope of the war between Israel and Hamas.

The Iran-backed terrorist group staged an October 7 attack on Israel by land, air and sea, killing at least 1,400 people, mostly civilians, and taking more than 200 civilian hostages.

IDF operations are ongoing in Gaza in an effort to eliminate the threat of Hamas.

Many Lebanese fear that Hizbullah's actions along the country's southern border with Israel could drag Lebanon into a devastating war.

Evidence suggests even many members of Hizbullah's base (Lebanon's Shia community) strongly oppose expanding the war.

For example, the Amal movement -- the other part of Lebanon's so-called "Shia duo" -- recently prevented Hizbullah fighters by force of arms from carrying out any military operation from the towns and villages the movement controls.

Since the group has links with Tehran, the regular influx of Iranian weapons and military equipment has also endangered the lives of civilians across Lebanon.

Residents of areas where Hizbullah wields influence have expressed concern about the party placing ammunition and missile depots in these areas, saying they fear that they might explode.

This fear was heightened after the massive August 4, 2020, explosion at the Beirut port, where a vast stockpile of industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly stored for years.

Now, residents say they fear the possibility of a weapon warehouse exploding in their midst.

Corruption, manipulation, stalling

Nasrallah and Hizbullah have been fighting off accusations of corruption and political manipulation for years.

Hizbullah's corruption, both inside Lebanon and in its dealings abroad, is at the root of Lebanon's economic collapse, politicians and observers have said.

The party has not allowed a Lebanese president to be elected since former president Michel Aoun's term ended last year, which allows it to further stall the political process in the country.

The political impasse makes it possible for Hizbullah to further consolidate its presence in Lebanon's judiciary, intelligence and security sectors.

The party's subservience to its main backer, Iran, has also invited the imposition of international sanctions on its leaders -- and the Lebanese people are paying the price.

Close to 75% of Lebanon's population is mired in poverty, while 82% live in "multidimensional poverty", which also takes into account access to health care, education and utilities, according to a September 2021 United Nations report.

"The entire Lebanese population is obligated to pay the price" for Hizbullah's national and international lawbreaking, said political activist Bishara Khairallah.

"Under the pretext of the 'resistance' and securing its road from Lebanon to Iran through Syria and Iraq, Hizbullah legitimised illegal crossings, and smuggling flourished," Khairallah said.

The party's actions also "provided cover for the illegal crossings and smuggling by other parties, which contributed greatly to the collapse of the Lebanese economy", he added.

A writer and political analyst at Independent Arabia, Sawsan Muhanna, told Al-Fassel: "The historical criticisms of Hizbullah from the Lebanese and the accusation of corruption" are valid, because Hizbullah is fundamentally corrupt, and has turned Lebanon into "a rogue and outlaw state."

"The Lebanese people's criticism of him for corruption and everything that drags the country into conflicts unrelated to us reflects a real desire of the Lebanese people to live in security, political and economic stability," she added.

"The Lebanese launched the hashtag 'Lebanon does not want war.' But the question is, will Hizbullah and Nasrallah commit to that?" she continued.

Nasrallah "does not care about Lebanon and its people, and has turned Lebanon into an Iranian proxy."

IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani is in Beirut "perhaps ... to plan something," she said.

Puppet of Tehran

Many see Nasrallah as a puppet of the Iranian regime.

Senior officials of terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad recently held talks with Nasrallah about their war with Israel, the Lebanese group said on October 25.

The three groups are part of the so-called "axis of resistance" -- Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Iraqi and other Iran-backed armed groups.

Nasrallah and the Palestinian militant leaders "agreed to keep coordinating and daily following up on developments," the statement added.

Hizbullah and Hamas have long been part of a "joint operations room" with the Quds Force -- the foreign operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- a source close to Hizbullah previously told AFP on condition of anonymity.

There is no shortage of financial and ideological ties between Hizbullah and the Iranian regime led by Ali Khamenei.

The close proximity to the regime has hurt Hizbullah's image.

A recent example of the group's concern over image was that they they felt compelled to seek a "Sunni cover" on Lebanon's southern front.

Since the start of the Hamas-Israel war on October 7, a new crop of armed groups has joined Hizbullah in southern Lebanon, where they have been launching rockets towards Israel from Sunni villages and towns.

Among them are Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Quwat al-Fajr, the military wing of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, which announced it has joined Iran's so-called "axis of resistance."

Analysts note that in southern Lebanon, these armed groups operate under the command of Hizbullah, which is seeking to reestablish its relationship with them after a period of estrangement.

Warnings

US officials have long warned other actors, including Hizbullah, from becoming involved in Israel's war against Hamas.

"We have said from the very beginning: We don't want to see any actor try to take advantage of the situation to widen or deepen the conflict, and that certainly includes Hizbullah," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said in a press briefing on October 23.

"And that's why the president has added additional military forces to the region, and more forces will be coming in days and weeks ahead to try to deter any actor from widening or deepening this conflict."

"We are deeply concerned about Hizbullah making the wrong decision and choosing to open a second front to this conflict," a senior US defense official told reporters earlier on October 9.

"We are working with Israel and with our partners across the region to contain this to Gaza."

"And it's one of the main reasons why we adjusted our posture so quickly to increase our maritime presence in the eastern Mediterranean, because Iran backed adversaries like Lebanese Hizbullah should not question the commitment of the US government to support the defense of Israel," said the official.