By Faisal Abu Bakr | 2025-01-02

CAIRO -- After failing to keep the Syrian regime in power, Russia has been scrambling to find alternative bases for its forces and military assets elsewhere in the Middle East and in Africa, analysts said.

Moscow already has forces in Libya, with the Wagner Group deploying up to 1,200 mercenaries to the north African country in mid-2020.

It also has a presence in Sudan, Mali and the Central African Republic, and has sought to broaden ties with various African nations like Mauritania in recent years.

Following the Syrian regime's demise, the Kremlin is prioritizing access to a different warm water port, said Abdul Salam Mohammed, director of the Abaad Center for Strategic Studies.

To this end, it is pressuring Egypt to allow access to Libya's port city of Benghazi, Mohammed told Al-Fassel.

Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah voiced concern over reports of military equipment transfers from Syria.

"No one with an ounce of patriotism wants a foreign power to come and impose its hegemony and authority over the country and the people," he said December 19, according to AFP.

Red Sea ambitions

Russia is also expanding influence in Yemen, supporting the Houthis who control parts of Yemen's Red Sea coast with logistics and weapons, Mohammed said.

By destabilizing key trade corridors -- which the United States and a multinational coalition are working to protect -- Russian support for the Houthis negatively impacts Egypt's economy.

Suez Canal revenues have dropped as a result of the Houthis' attacks on international shipping, Al-Ahram newspaper editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Ashmawy told Al-Fassel.

Losses reached $6 billion in less than six months, he said.

Russia's arms deals with the Houthis aim to establish influence near Yemen's Bab al-Mandeb strait, al-Ashmawy added.

Moscow is advancing plans for a Red Sea base in Sudan, as satellite images show increased Russian activity at its Sudan base, RFE/RL reported December 21, noting that the Kremlin also appears to be moving some of its military assets to Mali.

Despite this push, experts remain skeptical of Africa as a feasible alternative given the prohibitive costs of moving significant military assets from Syria or Russia to the region.

Paths to stability

While Russia relies on military force and proxy groups to expand its influence, the US emphasizes sustainable development and collaborative security.

Initiatives like Prosper Africa and the US International Development Finance Corporation drive private-sector-led growth, creating lasting economic opportunities.

For example, the US supports Angola’s Lobito Railway Corridor with a $550 million loan to refurbish and extend the railway, fostering regional economic integration.

Other US programs, such as the African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance, equip African nations to address regional security challenges and build resilience.