By Al-Fassel | 2024-03-06

Iran will seek to leverage its newly restored ties with Sudan to extend its influence northwards along the Red Sea, where its proxies, the Houthis, have been attacking ships, analysts said.

Iran restored its official ties with Sudan in October, and in February, Bloomberg reported that it was supplying drones to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) for use in their fight against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The SAF has used Iranian drones already, the New Arab reported, with the RSF claiming to have shot down at least three such drones in Greater Khartoum.

The RSF in January posted on social media what it said was debris from an Iranian-made Mohajer drone belonging to the army, AFP reported.

Renewed Sudan ties come as Iran -- increasingly isolated on the world stage -- is seeking to boost its economic, political and military influence in Africa.

Previous reports have revealed that Iranian drones and weapons were used in recent conflicts in Ethiopia and Somalia, fueling speculation that Iran intends to increase its arms sales to Africa.

Iran's interest in Sudan

Following the restoration of ties with Sudan, a cargo plane controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) landed in Sudan repeatedly, bringing weapons to the SAF, according to the Sudan War Monitor.

Flight tracking data show that the plane made several trips between airports in southern Iran and SAF-controlled areas of eastern Sudan, and was photographed in Port Sudan on one occasion, it said.

Military assistance is one of the main factors driving the SAF's interest in re-establishing relations with Iran, per the New Arab, "at a time when its forces have suffered major setbacks in recent months against the RSF."

"This influx of military hardware highlights Iran's interest in Sudan," journalist and researcher Areej Elhag wrote in a January 31 analysis published by the Washington Institute's Fikra Forum.

"By controlling Sudanese ports, Iran and its allies would gain a foothold in a critically important commercial corridor," she said, noting that Sudan's Red Sea coastline extends for about 670km.

The Sudanese army's stronghold in the east is the area most vulnerable to Iranian influence, she added.

With the SAF in control along the Red Sea, a large Iranian presence is concerning as the Iran-backed Houthis, on the other side of the key maritime transit lane, have been firing on international shipping.

Houthis transport Iranian arms

The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime has warned in several reports that Iranian weapons and ammunition supplied to the Houthis may be making their way onto East Africa's black market.

In a July-August 2020 report, the Geneva-based entity revealed evidence of illicit-arms smuggling networks through which Iranian arms intended for the Houthis in Yemen have ended up in Somalia, and potentially beyond.

Yemeni smugglers carry weapons into the Horn of Africa, Inside Arabia said in a January 30, 2020, report. And from Somalia, arms make their way to countries such as Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya.

Yemen is just across the water from the Horn of Africa "where fragile states like Somalia are located," said Abaad Center for Strategic Studies head Abdul Salam Mohammed.

The instability in the Horn of Africa has made it easy for the Houthis to find a market there, which is facilitated by "off-shore and on-shore operations between the two sides," he said.

"Iran sees Yemen and Somalia as strategic areas" because of their location on the Gulf of Aden and their proximity to Bab al-Mandeb strait, the gateway to a vital international shipping lane that Iran seeks to control, Mohammed said.

On January 11, US military personnel seized Iran-made missile warheads and related components, including engines, during a ship-boarding mission off the coast of Somalia, US officials said.

The missile parts originated from Iran and were set for transfer to another boat off the Somali coast before continuing on to Yemen, per the Washington Post.