By Anas al-Bar | 2024-10-16

Amid increasing displeasure with Tehran's failure to curb its proxies, the Iraqi government is pushing to prevent an escalation of the conflict in the region.

The so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an alliance of Iraqi militias linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed an October 4 drone attack on an Israeli military base in the Golan Heights.

Two Israeli soldiers were killed and 25 wounded, according to the Israeli army.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani acted to keep Iraq out of the conflict -- and reassured world leaders of Baghdad's desire to stay out.

Al-Sudani informed the ruling "Coordination Framework" that his country was "in the heart of the storm" and that "everyone must fend off danger ... by not getting involved in the war," sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Through various intermediaries, al-Sudani warned Kataib Hizbullah and Harakat al-Nujaba about the consequences of dragging Iraq into the conflict.

The sources also reported Iraqi leaders' displeasure with Tehran for not restraining its proxies and for wanting Iraq to join the war.

Diplomatic efforts

Iraq mounted intensive diplomacy to inform its Western allies, notably Washington and London, of its position on the latest developments.

Baghdad October 6 said that it was working "with great effort to spare Iraq the consequences of this escalation, and will continue its efforts with all countries to achieve calm."

However, the militias respond only to Iranian orders.

They "will attack with intensity if Israel responds to the recent attack," a source close to them told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website.

The militias have striven to secure their headquarters and the movements of their leaders, the source said.

A fickle partner

"The scope of the conflict will expand, and its duration will be prolonged," Shibl al-Zaidi, leader of the pro-Tehran group Imam Ali Brigades, posted on X.

Iraq "is an integral part of the battle," he added.

Entering a war is a "sovereign decision" that belongs to the government, said Iraqi military analyst and former army officer Ayad al-Tufan.

"The government is today doing everything it can ... to avoid the risk of Iraq entering a war that it cannot bear," he told Al-Fassel.

"The armed groups ... are continuing to defy and embarrass the government and push the country into regional conflict," al-Tufan said.

The Iranian regime, however, "will not stand with those groups" and "will abandon them as it abandoned Lebanese Hizbullah, whose leadership, structure and capabilities it allowed to collapse quickly," he said.