By Anas al-Bar | 2024-09-30

The recent appearance in Baghdad of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander Esmail Qaani is widely perceived as a new attempt to mend the rifts among Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, observers said.

In mid-September, Qaani met with prominent militia leaders in the Iraqi capital, among them Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Ameri, Asaib Ahl al-Haq chief Qais al-Khazaali and Kataib Hizbullah commander Hussein al-Hamidawi.

He reportedly carried a "special message" from Iranian leader Ali Khamenei encouraging the militias to reduce escalation and put an end to their infighting.

Observers said Qaani, who has visited Iraq numerous times, will again fail to achieve this objective, as disagreements among the various armed groups seem to have become more "rooted" and difficult to contain.

'Acute mistrust'

The relationship among Iranian proxies is dominated by a "general atmosphere of acute mistrust ," political analyst Tariq al-Shammari told Al-Fassel.

"It is threatened today with collapse, more than ever before, as a result of the escalation of crises, the clash of interests and influence, and threats by each party to force out the other," he said.

The traditional powers in the "Iranian axis" fear the rise of "up and coming" groups, he said, and worry about their place in the pecking order.

The new Iranian proxies are pursuing a "rebellious path against the authority and decisions of the founding fathers," he said.

They accuse the traditional powers of taking "cowardly positions," he said, especially on the issue of "the withdrawal of US forces" from Iraq, and their non-engagement in the Israel-Hamas war.

Unlike their newer counterparts, the "veteran" militia leaders have "parliamentary and governmental representation within what is known as the Coordination Framework," al-Shammari said.

Lack of trust

Controversy erupted in Iraq in August over an "espionage and eavesdropping case," believed to have been directed by militia leaders against other leaders.

This led to a sharp escalation in disagreements among the militias, and prompted Iran to intervene and send in Qaani.

"The militias today feel they are existentially threatened and infiltrated by other militias, and that they are vulnerable to betrayal and therefore do not trust any party, regardless of the extent of their connection to Iran," al-Shammari said.

"Qaani's presence does not change the equation in any way, and will not succeed in restoring the lost cohesion among all parties allied with the [Iranian] regime," he said.

The Iranian regime's ability to save its axis from sliding into the abyss "is almost non-existent, especially since it is preoccupied today with absorbing one shock after another," he added.

This includes "security breaches and the targeting of its major regional agents ," he said.