By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2024-03-23

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) commander Esmail Qaani has made repeated visits to Beirut in recent months to meet with his close ally, Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

Foremost among the topics discussed, per a March 15 Reuters report, was the possibility that Israel will seek a full-scale offensive against the Lebanese party, which could pressure Iran into a more forceful response.

Nasrallah reportedly assured Qaani that any fight was Hizbullah's alone.

But this is clearly not the case, Iranian affairs experts told Al-Fassel, dismissing the notion that Hizbullah would act alone in a heightened conflict with Israel as political and strategic "smoke and mirrors."

Nasrallah's assertion directly serves Iran's interest by distancing Tehran from the conflict, Lebanese journalist and Hizbullah opponent Hussein Qassem told Al-Fassel, using a pseudonym out of concern for his safety.

This is something that "no reasonable person or one familiar with Iranian affairs would believe, because Hizbullah is the primary and most powerful affiliate of the IRGC," he said.

Hizbullah has had a primary role in the establishment of other Iranian proxy groups in the region, he said, and is directly supervising militias in Gaza, Yemen, Syria and even -- to a lesser extent -- Iraq, alongside IRGC officers.

Nasrallah's claim to be confronting Israel alone is merely a message to his supporters in Lebanon and the region who were disappointed in Hizbullah's "modest military response" after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, he said.

In his past speeches, the Hizbullah leader has said just the opposite, he noted.

A political message

Qaani's visits to Beirut can be seen as "Iranian diplomatic messages directed at the United States and its allies," Iranian affairs researcher Fathi al-Sayed of the al-Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies told Al-Fassel.

These are "aimed at defusing the crisis and not allowing it to expand into a comprehensive war in which Iran would be the biggest loser, not only militarily but also politically," he said.

In the event that a regional war breaks out, he added, "Tehran would lose 40 years of efforts to establish affiliates to control the Middle East."

"It also would lose the political progress that has been achieved with the Gulf states... as these countries would not stand idly by in the event of a regional war."

Tehran is treading carefully with Lebanon, as it is fully aware of the political schism in the country over Hizbullah's weapons and wariness over entering into new wars that would destroy what remains of the Lebanese state, al-Sayed said.

Iran, Hizbullah in lockstep

"Both the IRGC and Hizbullah are facing a major dilemma at the present time, and the talks and meetings taking place aim to find a way out that saves face for both of them," military expert Jamil Abu Hamdan told Al-Fassel.

From a strategic and military perspective, Hizbullah "has an army in every sense of the word, and it is equipped with the latest military technologies and weapons of all kinds," Abu Hamdan said.

"This allows it to enter into a battle if it wants to, but Hizbullah knows that it will ultimately be the loser due to the relative narrowness of the geographic area, and that the war will be a mirror image of the war in Gaza."

Abu Hamdan said Hizbullah is "directly responsible for what is happening in Gaza and Yemen, because of the combat training it provides to Hamas and Houthi elements in Lebanon and Syria."

There is evidence to suggest that some Hamas elements were trained in guerrilla warfare and infiltration of civilian areas by Hizbullah trainers in Syria, he added. "The same applies to naval combat groups or those that use drones."

Furthermore, he added, the party is primarily responsible for the establishment, development and supervision of the Houthi missile system.

"All of these activities would not have been carried out on a decision issued by Hizbullah's leaders alone but rather were decisions issued by the highest ranks of the IRGC," or even by Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and his inner circle, he said.