By Anas al-Bar | 2024-08-06

A recent uptick in "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) attacks in Iraq and Syria has raised concerns that the extremist threat will re-emerge, analysts said, pointing to the need for continued pressure on the group.

But as the international coalition continues its fight to stamp out ISIS remnants, alongside regional allies, its efforts are constantly undermined by attacks on coalition bases by Iran-aligned militias, they said.

In the years since its military defeat, ISIS's ranks have shrunk further as security forces targeted the group's cells and combat resources, though the extremists retained some capacity to launch attacks in remote areas.

This year, however, the pace of ISIS's activities rose, with most of the group's attacks concentrated in eastern Syria and northern Iraq.

In a recent interview, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman pointed to a "very significant increase" in ISIS attacks.

The extremist group is now more capable of "attacking, engaging in clashes, inflicting losses and executing prisoners," he said.

So far this year, he said, there have been 122 ISIS attacks in Syria's eastern desert (Badiya), in which about 300 people were killed.

Militias sabotage progress

Significant progress has occurred in the fight to eradicate ISIS since the group's military defeat.

"Only very few sleeper cells are left hiding in the desert that espouse the group's ideology," said Syrian Tribal Council spokesman Mudar al-Asaad.

"They are not capable of carrying out a major terrorist act as they were before," he told Al-Fassel.

At the beginning of this year, the United Nations estimated the number of ISIS fighters remaining in Syria and Iraq at between 3,000 and 5,000.

The group's financial reserves have declined, with an estimated $10 million to $25 million in its coffers acquired mainly through theft, extortion and kidnapping for ransom, and to a lesser extent through remittances and cryptocurrencies.

ISIS's recent "resurgence" is made possible by groups allied with Iran, Iraqi political analyst Tariq al-Shammari told Al-Fassel.

The attacks Iran-aligned militias have carried out on international coalition bases inside Iraq and Syria "impede" international efforts to combat ISIS, he said.

On July 25 and 26, rockets were fired at Ain al-Asad base in Iraq's Anbar province and the Conoco gas field in Syria's Deir Ezzor province from "zones under the control of pro-Iranian militias," the Observatory said.

The bases host troops from the international coalition.