By Anas al-Bar | 2024-02-08

As a joint US-Iraqi commission reviews the mission of the international coalition to defeat the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS), Iraqi experts point to the achievements of years of cooperation and express certainty it will continue.

The open-ended talks between US and Iraqi military officials began in Iraq on January 27, with Iraq also engaging the other coalition members.

The coalition said the initial meeting was part of the process to "assess progress in the coalition's primary Defeat-ISIS mission, as well as discuss future adjustments to the coalition's mission and presence in Iraq."

The joint military commission "will work to set the conditions to transition the mission in Iraq," it added.

Iraqi experts who spoke to Al-Fassel say the continued presence of the US-led international coalition in Iraq is "necessary" to prevent a resurgence of ISIS.

They stressed the importance of the coalition's continued advisory role and its contributions in terms of training and supporting Iraqi forces within the framework of the strategic security relationship between the two sides.

This is designed to preserve the stability of Iraq and the region, they said.

The US-led international coalition, also known as Operation Inherent Resolve, was formed in September 2014 to defeat ISIS after the extremist group seized control of large portions of Iraq and Syria. It comprises 86 countries.

Over the course of three years, Iraqi forces, aided by coalition air cover, were able to expel ISIS from all the cities and towns it controlled.

Since 2018, the focus of the partnership between Iraq and the international coalition has shifted from combat action to more comprehensive efforts to oust ISIS remnants and build stability and intelligence and logistical cooperation.

ISIS sleeper cells continue to pose a threat.

Operation Inherent Resolve personnel also advise, train and provide Iraqi security personnel with the technologies needed to upgrade their skills to pursue extremist elements and protect the country's borders.

As of 2020, they have provided training to more than 240,000 Iraqi security personnel and delivered military equipment and armor worth millions of dollars to Iraq to maintain border security.

Last June, the United States and the ministers of international coalition member states launched a campaign to raise $600 million to support the stability of areas liberated from ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Eight member states already have pledged to secure half of this amount.

US-Iraqi military talks

The international coalition's missions in Iraq are led by US forces, with 2,400 soldiers stationed at two main bases: Ain al-Asad in the western province of Anbar and Harir in Erbil.

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, US bases in Iraq and Syria have come under more than 160 attacks by Iran-backed groups, foremost among them Kataib Hizbullah.

Amid the ongoing regional escalation, a first round of US-Iraqi military talks kicked off January 27, centered on the US presence in Iraq, with Iran-linked parties and militias pressing to end that presence.

But many in Iraq object to that idea.

"Iraq needs the United States and the international coalition in general to stay," political analyst Tariq al-Shammari told Al-Fassel.

This is necessary "not only to confront the security challenge but also to complete training plans and enhance the combat efficiency and skills of Iraqi soldiers," he said.

"Important achievements have been made over the years thanks to the close cooperation between the two sides," he added, citing the military defeat of ISIS and the reduction of its ongoing threat as foremost.

"While the United States and the coalition helped us achieve victory, they also continued to support us to maintain the gains through their advisory and logistical efforts and participation in the reconstruction of areas affected by the war," he said.

Al-Shammari stressed that "the Iraqi negotiator in the current talks about the future of the US and international presence must take into account that this presence is necessary at the current stage."

This presence is "a safety valve for the country against the threat of ISIS resurging and regaining the initiative in the attack, despite the experience and capabilities that the Iraqi forces possess today," he said.

He said that Iran is directing its proxies to target the bases that host US military personnel and ramp up tensions to push the international coalition to leave so it can weaken Iraq, impose hegemony over it and exploit its wealth.

"It is necessary not to give in to Iran's will and projects and drop a major partner like the United States in favor of a pariah state like Iran whose agenda is nothing but to stir up trouble and destroy countries," he said.

New understandings, dangers

The US-led international coalition has been successful in keeping ISIS in check.

Last April, international coalition commander Gen. Matthew MacFarlane said, ISIS "has failed to organize or coordinate anything on a broader level," and the number of its attacks had decreased 80% compared to 2022.

Despite these efforts, however, the group's remnants continue to be active in rural and remote areas of Iraq and Syria, he said.

The Iraqi-US talks aim to develop a new form for a "sustainable bilateral security relationship," military expert Ayad al-Toufan told Al-Fassel.

It is likely there will be no US military withdrawal, he said, but rather new understandings for a permanent partnership.

On January 25, ahead of the latest round of talks, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the two sides would discuss how the international coalition's mission to defeat ISIS will transition.

This will be done on a timeline that considers three key factors: "the threat from ISIS, operational and environmental requirements, and the Iraqi security forces' capability levels," Austin said.

Al-Toufan pointed to the new danger posed by Iran-backed militias that want to turn Iraq and Syria into "one battlefield."

The United States says the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq -- an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militias -- was behind the January 27 drone attack that killed three US soldiers and injured 34 others at a base in Jordan.

Al-Toufan described the attack as a "dangerous escalation" and said it confirms that these groups are continuing to carry out Tehran's orders to expand the war.

The United States retaliated on February 3 for the Jordan attack, with strikes against dozens of targets at seven Tehran-linked facilities in Iraq and Syria.

Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq took the opportunity to reiterate their call for US forces to withdraw from the country, while several militias, including Harakat al-Nujaba, have vowed to continue their attacks on US troops.