By Al-Fassel | 2024-04-23

Russia's ability to protect itself and others in the Red Sea looks increasingly dubious as Ukraine routinely thrashes the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Outgunned and outmanned, possessing no navy to speak of, Ukraine has used drones and ingenuity to wound the Russian fleet so badly that it retreated from its main base in Sevastopol to safer waters in Novorossiysk.

The most recent loss was a 111-year-old salvage ship belonging to Russia's Black Sea Fleet on the annexed Crimean peninsula.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said its forces hit the 315-foot Kommuna with a locally-made Neptune cruise missile on Sunday (April 21).

Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said the ship was "no longer capable of performing its tasks."

"This will continue to happen until the Russians run out of ships or leave Crimea," he said.

Massive losses

The list of damaged or sunken ships is substantial -- representing one-third of the Black Sea Fleet's pre-war vessels.

"The losses include a cruiser, a submarine, a supply ship, several patrol boats, two missile corvettes and at least six landing ships -- not to mention one of the fleet's rare Beriev Be-200 flying boats," Forbes reported April 21.

The most humiliating was the sinking of the fleet's flagship, the Moskva guided-missile cruiser, in April 2022.

Now the fleet is desperately trying to stay afloat.

Last November, Russia deployed the Admiral Makarov frigate in the Black Sea to shore up the fleet's defenses.

"Almost all warships with the appropriate weaponry on board are used to protect each other," Alexander Kovalenko, military-political correspondent for InfoResist, told Al-Fassel. "This goes for Russian frigates ... corvettes and small missile boats."

What is left of the Black Sea Fleet rarely ventures "out of Novorossiysk's waters because [the Russians] understand that in open water they are a very easy target," he added.

Unreliable partner

Russia's inability to protect its Black Sea Fleet raises questions about the Kremlin's worth as a naval partner, particularly in the Red Sea.

For a decade, Russia has sought to establish a permanent military presence in the Red Sea, a key route for cargo vessels traveling between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

A planned Russian naval base in Sudan is reportedly on hold due to conflict in that country. Moscow is also looking to boost relations with Eritrea.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a visit to Eritrea last year noted the logistical potential of the Massawa port, according to the Maritime Executive.

The port city signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Russian-occupied Sevastopol's Black Sea naval base pledging closer ties.