By Al-Fassel | 2024-02-12

As commercial shipping slows to a crawl in the Red Sea amid the attacks carried out by the Iran-backed Houthis, southbound transits have been particularly affected -- with the notable exception of vessels carrying Russian-origin cargoes.

Continuing a decline that began in mid-December, southbound clean tanker transits in the Red Sea have come to a virtual standstill, oil analytics firm Vortexa said in a January 30 report.

Clean petroleum products (CPP) still going through are almost all Russian-origin, heading east, it said.

The flow of tanker traffic most affected by northbound diversions is middle distillates from western India or the Middle East heading to Europe, it added.

Per the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), ships diverting from the Red Sea -- sailing instead around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope -- has led to a 42% drop in transit through the Suez Canal in the last two months.

Virtually all CPP tankers have now made the decision to divert around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa's southern tip, it said.

"This evidence around low CPP transits through the Red Sea begs the question, which tankers are still transiting the route?" Vortexa said.

Between January 23 and 27, it said, 44% of all transits via Bab al-Mandeb were Russian-origin cargoes, mostly either crude or dirty petroleum products (DPP).

Russia affected despite 'special status'

On January 26, the Houthis struck the Marshall Islands-flagged Bermuda-owned tanker M/V Marlin Luanda in the Gulf of Aden with an anti-ship ballistic missile fired from Yemen, causing a major fire in one of the cargo holds.

Marlin Luanda issued a distress call, and USS Carney, the French navy frigate FS Alsace and Indian navy frigate INS Visakhapatnam all responded quickly, providing critical firefighting material and assistance to the civilian crew.

The fire was extinguished, and Marlin Luanda returned to its course.

Marlin Luanda was transporting for commercial use a cargo of naphtha, a highly flammable liquid hydrogen mixture, the US military's Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a January 27 statement.

Though Marlin Luanda's naphtha cargo originated in Russia, the vessel's reported ties to both US and UK corporate entities were the motive for the attack, Vortexa said.

"This suggests that other Russian cargoes that are not carried by European Union (EU)/UK-based individuals would likely not be running the same risk," it noted.

"What will happen to Baltic/Black Sea-origin Russian cargoes moving forward remains a question mark, as these rely on the Red Sea" to access the East, it said.

"For the moment, these appear to still be transiting, but this could change if the situation escalates," it added, noting that it is "increasingly likely" that the attack on Marlin Luanda will further reduce overall transits in the Red Sea.

"Some tankers transporting Russian fuels have started to avoid the Suez Canal route to Asia," global energy news site Oilprice reported January 31.

"Ship-tracking data shows operators of vessels carrying Russian oil products may have reached the risk tolerance for passing close to Houthi missiles in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden," it said.

The Red Sea/Suez Canal route is the shortest passage for tankers from Russia's western ports to Asia, it added, noting that until recently, traders and operators were relatively sure that cargoes of Russian origin would not be targeted.

But the Houthis' January 26 attack on Marlin Luanda changed that, it said, prompting the re-routing of some Russia-originated cargoes.

"Several tankers loaded from the Baltic and Black Sea ports in Russia have diverted destinations while in the Mediterranean," Oilprice reported.

Instead of heading south to the Suez Canal, these vessels "are now headed toward Gibraltar and further down along the African coast," according to LSEG data and market sources quoted by Reuters.