By Samah Abdul Fattah | 2024-02-28

Though a handful of senior officers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have left Syria, Iranian forces have not withdrawn from the country -- nor do they intend to, experts told Al-Fassel.

Contrary to media reports that claim the IRGC is pulling its forces out of Syria, the senior officers are being repositioned for political and security purposes related to ensuring the IRGC's continued presence, they said.

The recently reported withdrawal of senior IRGC officers from Syria is nothing more than a "media stunt," said Iranian affairs specialist Fathi al-Sayed of Al-Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies.

No more than five senior officers have left Syria, he told Al-Fassel, "which confirms there is no actual withdrawal taking place but merely a repositioning of commanding officers, and redeployment by the groups deployed on the ground."

This repositioning was carried out to avoid, or at least reduce, mounting losses from air strikes that killed a number of Iranian officers who were present in Syria under the guise of "advisors," al-Sayed said.

The reported withdrawal of officers may be an Iranian attempt to calm rising tensions with the United States, he said, suggesting that with the reports of the withdrawal, Iran is sending a message that it does not seek a confrontation.

This move coincided with reports that the IRGC had issued strict orders to all affiliates in the region not to target US forces, he said.

A climate of disagreement

Five IRGC "military advisors" were killed in a January 20 air strike in the Mazzeh area of Damascus in an incident some Iranian media outlets blamed on a security breach within the Syrian forces.

In December, an air strike on a suburb of Damascus killed Iranian Gen. Seyed Razi Mousavi, a longtime advisor of the IRGC in Syria.

According to Lebanese military expert Jamil Abu Hamdan, this matter has two explanations and one fact.

"The truth is that these assassinations would not have succeeded without human assistance on the ground to confirm the movement and arrival of the targeted individuals," he told Al-Fassel.

Therefore, the human assistance was likely provided either by the Syrian regime security services or by the IRGC or its affiliates deployed in Syria, he said.

"Perhaps the Iranian insistence on directing the accusation at the security services of the Syrian regime is an attempt to divert attention from the IRGC," Hamdan suggested.

Either way, he said, "the attacks in Lebanon on Hamas leaders and even commanders of Hizbullah itself confirm the hypothesis of a high-level security breach that led to the success of most of the raids."

If these reports are confirmed or allowed to spread, he added, this "will lead to a wave of internal conflicts that lead to weakening the Iranian presence and its main ally, Hizbullah."

Deployment of Hizbullah officers

The presence of senior Iranian officers on the ground in Syria has been limited to media appearances in recent months, said media activist Ayham al-Ali, who hails from the Syrian border town of Albu Kamal.

Whether they appear does not make any difference on the ground, owing to the presence of Lebanese Hizbullah and Fatemiyoun Division officers, he said.

Together, Lebanese Hizbullah and the Fatemiyoun Division are "fully in charge," al-Ali said.

All Iranian affiliates deployed in the vicinity of Albu Kamal, Deir Ezzor and al-Mayadeen and in the areas that stretch across to the Eastern Desert (Badiya) and rural Aleppo "are camouflaging military posts and weapon depots," he said.

These militias also are "deploying elements outside their security zone in small groups," al-Ali added.

Widely circulated but unconfirmed reports indicate that the IRGC's regional commander, known as "Hajj Askar," appeared in the city of Deir Ezzor after the announcement of the withdrawal of commanders from the region, he said.

Hajj Askar was reportedly accompanied by a group of Lebanese Hizbullah fighters and officers, he said, and this could explain that only a small number of Ianian officers left the country, while the rest were redeployed in Syria.

The redeployments would be mainly in Damascus and various other hideouts, with these officers only showing their faces on rare occasions, he added.

Al-Ali said that all groups affiliated with and funded by the IRGC "are now under the command of Hizbullah officers, with the exception of the Fatemiyoun Division, which shares an operations room with Hizbullah for coordination."

This gives the Fatemiyoun -- an IRGC-controlled militia comprised of Afghan fighters -- much freedom to intervene, deploy and make decisions, he said.

As for the remaining armed groups, he said, they have no authority on the ground except on Hizbullah's orders, "especially the local groups, which have become completely subordinate to Hizbullah’s authority."