By Al-Fassel | 2024-02-17

As cargo vessels approach Bab al-Mandeb, the Red Sea's southern gate, they are slowing down to await instruction on how to proceed amid the attacks being carried out by the Iran-backed Houthis, creating an easy target for pirates.

Analysts say this has contributed to a recent rise in piracy off the Somali coast.

Since the Houthis began their attacks, many cargo ships have slowed down hundreds of miles out at sea to await instructions on whether to proceed to the Red Sea, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) researcher Timothy Walker told AFP.

"It creates a hunting ground," he said.

These ships have become especially vulnerable as some foreign navies have relocated from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea in response to the Iran-backed Houthis' attacks, analysts say.

While Somali piracy does not pose the threat it did in 2011, the recent upswing in pirate activity has raised further concerns about marine security and shipping at a time when crucial trade corridors off Yemen have come under siege.

The UK Marine Trade Operations, which monitors piracy, recorded six incidents off Somalia's coast since mid-December, from approaches by crews armed with machine guns and rocket launchers, to successful hijackings.

The uptick in piracy incidents off the Somali coast comes even as worldwide, piracy had remained at a historically low level in 2023, per the Maritime Information Cooperation and Awareness (MICA) Center.

Spike in pirate activity

The MICA Center, which monitors global maritime traffic and has forged partnerships with 65 shipping companies, noted the "possible resurgence" of piracy off Somalia in a 2023 report.

It recorded nine attacks over that year, describing the number as "novel."

Many of these incidents occurred off Puntland, the historic hub of Somali piracy, which wraps around the Horn of Africa and boasts long coastlines on the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

MICA Center commander Eric Jaslin said the piracy increase occurred "almost simultaneously" as the Iran-backed Houthis began targeting vessels in the Red Sea and its southern approaches from areas of Yemen they control.

"Almost at the same time, we began to observe a phenomena of piracy against dhows off the coast of Puntland," he said.

Attacks on ships off the coast of Somalia appear to be opportunistic, with hijackers likely exploiting a security gap, Troels Burchall Henningsen, associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College, told the BBC.

He noted that international forces began patrolling these waters when piracy surged between 2005 and 2012, but the focus recently moved up into the Red Sea, where the Houthis have been attacking ships, the BBC reported February 2.

Factors driving piracy

According to one theory, it is possible that the pirates and the Houthis are acting in concert, the Observer Research Foundation said in a January 23 report.

"The proponents of this line of reasoning cite intelligence that suggests Al-Shabab in Somalia joined hands with the Houthis in the Red Sea," the report said.

"Although outwardly compelling, there is scant evidence to support this contention," it noted.

Per Dan Mueller, lead analyst for the Middle Eastern Region for maritime security firm Ambrey, merchant vessels have been the target of about 20% of Somali piracy-related incidents since November.

The pirates also have been attacking fishing vessels, mostly Iranian, as well as many other small boats such as skiffs, CNBC reported February 6.

In a June 2020 report, Global Fishing Watch and Trygg Mat Tracking revealed that Iran had been conducting a massive illegal fishing operation in the Indian Ocean, with Iranian vessels operating in Yemeni and Somali waters.

Working with regional partners, including the Somali government, the two organizations detected nearly 200 Iranian vessels in Yemeni and Somali waters, indicating that Iran was stealing the fish wealth of these countries.

In the past, Walker the ISS researcher told AFP, some pirates claimed they were preventing illegal fishing operations.

Between January 29 and February 2, four fishing boats were freed by the Indian and Seychellois navies after being hijacked, sometimes more than 800 nautical miles (1,500km) from the coast.

"The further away from Somalia the less likelihood for a connection to a fishing scenario," said Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Danish maritime intelligence and security company Risk Intelligence.

Piracy attacks peaked in 2011, when internal chaos in Somalia and the absence of a coast guard allowed pirates to hijack commercial ships and hold crews to ransom. Since then, it has fallen sharply, thanks to multinational naval patrols.

Navies have more advanced systems for detecting pirate activity, and merchant ships are more aware of the risks and familiar with security procedures.

International Crisis Group researcher Omar Mahmood told AFP the recent uptick in pirate activity was "more likely to be a flare-up than full-fledged resurgence."

In Eyl, a town on the Somali coast, locals expressed the same view.

"There are warships patrolling the sea. I don't believe any pirate in their right mind would take the chance," said Ahmed Siyad, a fisherman in Eyl.

'There is real concern'

A total of 295 acts of piracy and brigandage were recorded last year, compared with 300 in 2022, the lowest since statistics began in 2008, according to the annual review by the MICA Center.

"Globally we are seeing stable trends" despite "numerous areas of insecurity in the Indian Ocean," Jaslin said.

But the end of 2023 was marked by a wave of attacks by the Houthis against merchant ships around Bab al-Mandeb, which links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Around 12% of world trade passes through this strait.

"The threat is violent, with missiles and drones loaded with explosives. There is a real concern around this strait," Jaslin stressed.

Last year, 47 attacks of this type were recorded, mainly around Bab al-Mandeb but also near the Strait of Hormuz and off the Indian coast.

Cases of piracy also have been recorded off the coast of Somalia for the first time since 2017.

"Is this piracy of opportunity, because all (military) resources are focused on the Red Sea? Or is this a phenomenon that is starting up again? It's too early to say," Jaslin said.