By Al-Fassel | 2023-12-10

Amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iran has found a renewed opportunity to use its proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, to threaten maritime security in Bab al-Mandeb strait and in the Red Sea via various means, observers said.

Meanwhile, it continues to issue threats at the region's other key trade chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, directly threatening global commerce in the Gulf as well as the economy and security of the region.

"The Iranian regime's support to the Houthis has enabled unprovoked attacks on civilian infrastructure in Israel and on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden," said US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

"Attacks launched from Houthi-controlled areas have also threatened US warships operating in international waters," he said in a December 7 statement.

"Such attacks disrupt maritime security and impede freedom of navigation for commercial vessels, increase regional instability, and risk broadening the conflict between Israel and Hamas," he added.

"The Houthis continue to receive funding and support from Iran, and the result is unsurprising," said US Treasury official Brian E. Nelson.

The Houthis have launched a series of drones and missiles toward Israel in recent weeks from Yemen, and seized a cargo vessel last month.

The US Navy on December 6 shot down a drone that originated from a part of Yemen controlled by the Houthis in the southern Red Sea, a US military official said.

A US guided missile destroyer in the Red Sea shot down multiple drones on December 3 while assisting three commercial ships that were targeted by explosive drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen, the US military said.

The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on two of the ships.

"These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security," the US military's Central Command said after the attack.

"They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world," it said.

"We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran," it added.

Threats to close Strait of Hormuz

Iran has a long history of harassing ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and has issued provocative statements on a number of occasions in which it threatens to "close" the strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes.

In October, Iranian lawmaker Hassan Norouzi threatened that it is "not unlikely that we could close the Strait of Hormuz," if the Hamas-Israel conflict worsens, Iran International reported.

"Among the major trade chokepoints around the world Hormuz is unique," former UK Royal Navy officer and warship captain Tom Sharpe wrote in a November 29 op-ed in The Telegraph.

"Malacca, Suez, Panama, Gibraltar, Danish, Bab al-Mandeb and Dover all have alternative routes around them," he wrote.

"Of the remaining two, Hormuz and Bosporus, Hormuz is the only one bordered by a non-NATO state [Iran] that has dedicated billions of dollars to developing military assets to be able to close it."

These assets include "mobile ballistic missile launchers, thousands of fast attack craft and minelayers," Sharpe said.

"If the conflict broadens to include the closure of the Strait of Hormuz ... it would shut down the region's oil trade, supercharging oil prices," investment bank JP Morgan said in a statement quoted by Reuters.

"Crucially, while Iran has threatened over the years to block the strait, it had never followed through," the bank added.

Iran twice threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and block all exports of oil from the Arabian Gulf in 2018. It also threatened to close Hormuz in 2011 and 2012, but it has not really made a serious attempt to close it since the 1980s.

US officials have described Iran's threats as mere "rhetoric."

John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital, told CNBC News in December 2018 that Iran's commentary was "just bluster" that oil analysts have heard many times before.

"The closing of the strait wouldn't just harm [the] global oil industry but would hurt Iran itself," he said. "It's not in their best interest to do it."

Writing for The Telegraph, Sharpe said a closure at the present time is an "extremely unlikely" scenario.

The Iranians "need trade flowing outbound as much as everyone else needs it inbound," he wrote.