By Al-Fassel | 2024-01-21

Russia and China's refusal to condemn the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea has enabled Iran, the militant group's sponsor, and contributed to the current crisis in the strategic waterway, observers say.

The burgeoning relationship among the three countries is having a detrimental effect on global peace and security, recent events show.

Ever since the Iran-backed Houthis started attacking commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea on November 19, Russia and China have abstained from condemning these actions -- even though they are not immune to their effects.

"China opposes attacks against civilian vessels," was all that Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said during a regular news briefing on January 4, without specifically mentioning or condemning the Houthis.

Russia also has not criticized the Houthis for their attacks but was quick to condemn US and UK retaliatory strikes against the group on January 12.

Two days prior, Russia and China had both abstained from a United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution that condemned "in the strongest terms" the Houthis' Red Sea attacks and demanded the immediate cessation of all such attacks.

It also called for the release of the Japanese-registered Galaxy Leader and its 25 international crew members, which the Houthis seized in the Red Sea on November 19.

The resolution noted the right of UN member states "to defend their vessels from attack, including those that undermine navigational rights and freedoms."

"We should not obscure the fact that Iran offers its support for the Houthis to attack merchant and commercial ships passing through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait," US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said January 10.

The threats to navigation rights in the Red Sea are "a global problem that requires a global action," she said.

Driven by self-interest

As both China and Russia stand to lose economically from drawn out tensions in the Red Sea, observers question the consequences of the influence they wield over Iran and the Middle East.

As far as China is concerned, it is in Beijing's best interest to calm things down and avoid an all-out conflict in the region, analysts say, especially after it brokered the rapprochement deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran last March.

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping's ascension to power and his launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China has sought to expand its geopolitical and economic influence in the Middle East, with Iran being central to that plan.

In March 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year "strategic co-operation pact." Under Chinese sponsorship, Iran also joined the BRICS group of developing nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

"China mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran for political and economic goals," said economist Abdul Aziz Thabet.

But in practice, Beijing does not have any political influence over the countries of the region, he told Al-Fassel. "It is not influence as much as it is an exchange of economic interests," he explained.

By abstaining from voting on the UN resolution, China and Russia have shown that "they do not care about acts of piracy in the Red Sea and are not interested in the security and stability of international shipping lanes," Thabet said.

Political gamble

Meanwhile, the "burgeoning" military ties between Russia and Iran, including shared drone technology, are a particular concern for the region, US 9th Air Force commander Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich said in September.

There is ample evidence that Iran has been supplying Russia with drones -- which Russia has used in its attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine -- and that Tehran is helping Moscow build a plant to manufacture drones domestically.

Iran also has finalized arrangements to receive Russian-made Sukhoi (Su)-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 jet trainers and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported on November 28.

Moscow and Beijing's close relations with Tehran mean that the Houthis are not attacking Russian or Chinese vessels, which have continued to sail through the Red Sea, even if at a slower pace.

But both countries are taking a political gamble by not condemning the attacks.

The continuation of Houthi attacks will affect, in one way or another, the countries that use the Red Sea and Suez Canal for exports and imports, said Thabet, the economist.

That list includes Russia and China, which rely on the waterway for trade among East Asia, India and the Middle East, he noted.

For China, the world's largest exporter, its commercial interests along the Suez Canal and strategic investments in Egypt are at risk.

At Beijing's encouragement, state-owned companies have invested $4.65 billion in Egypt's logistics, transport, real estate and energy sectors over the past decade, according to the American Enterprise Institute think tank.

Egypt also owes billions of dollars in debt to China, with the Central Bank of Egypt securing a $956.61 million loan from the state-run China Development Bank just this past October.

In the months leading up to the increase in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, firms from China and Hong Kong pledged at least $20 billion in various projects along Egypt's arterial waterway, Reuters reported January 15.

As Houthi attacks continue to deter and slow commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, Chinese investors are likely to grow increasingly frustrated with their dwindling returns.

Russian oil sales have already seen a dip, with India's Russian oil imports at an 11-month low, Indian news outlet Firstpost reported on January 2. Instead, India is turning to Arab Gulf countries for oil imports.

Losses for Russia, China

Normally, about 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea. But between November and December 2023, global trade dropped 1.3%, according to IfW Kiel, a German economic institute.

In November, about 500,000 containers were being transported via the Red Sea daily, the institute reported January 11. Now, only about 200,000 containers are traversing the waterway.

"Russia and China are [adversely] affected by the military operations and attacks carried out by the Houthis in the Red Sea," said Abaad Center for Strategic Studies director Abdul Salam Mohammed.

Attacks in the Red Sea raise the cost of insurance and cause shipping delays as major freight companies have to reroute their vessels around the tip of Africa, he told Al-Fassel.

These attacks expose Moscow and Beijing to potentially "massive" economic and commercial losses, even if the Houthis do not directly target their ships, he said.

"It is in China's interest for calm to prevail, as China ... always puts its commercial and economic interests first," said political analyst Mahmoud al-Taher.

However, both China and Russia are using the current tensions in the Middle East to their advantage in order to ease international pressure on them over conflicts they are stoking closer to home.

Russia is hoping the new conflict in the Middle East will distract from its own war on Ukraine, said Yemeni Deputy Minister of Justice Faisal al-Majeedi.

China, meanwhile, aims to distract the the world's attention from tensions it is stoking in the South China Sea, he said, where Beijing has asserted conflicting maritime claims in violation of international law.

Faisal Abu Bakr in Yemen contributed to this report.