By Al-Fassel | 2024-01-16

The Houthis' continued attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea threaten to significantly disrupt the flow of commercial goods between Asia and Europe.

But China -- the world's largest exporter and a key Iran ally -- has been conspicuously absent from the global coalition to protect trade in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and has failed to condemn the Houthis' actions.

The Iran-backed Houthis have launched more than 100 drone and missile attacks on targets in Israel and the Red Sea, including at least 26 attacks against commercial ships in the international waterway since November 19.

The attacks are disrupting traffic in the key shipping route that carries around 12% of global seaborne trade, resulting in billions of dollars in commercial losses, trade delays, and an increase in prices for energy, food, electronics and other essential commodities.

"There are no signs their irresponsible behavior is abating," US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) Commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper said on January 4 of the Houthis.

At least 55 nations have direct connections to the ships the Houthis have attacked, he said, adding that the US Navy and its partners have downed 19 drones and missiles and sunk three small boats in recent weeks.

Except for one Hong Kong-flagged vessel that was targeted by a ballistic missile launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen in December, Chinese ships have largely been spared from such attacks.

On the one hand, the Houthis want to avoid embarrassing Iran, whose regime has grown closer to Beijing in recent years, experts say.

And on the other, the Iran-backed group wants to avoid a dramatic shift in Beijing's position on Middle East affairs, they said.

"China opposes attacks against civilian vessels," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said during a regular news briefing on January 4, without specifically mentioning or condemning the Houthis.

On December 18, the United States announced the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a joint maritime security initiative in the Red Sea that aims to protect the important shipping lane.

The operation is being run by the pre-existing Combined Task Force 153, focusing on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

A growing number of countries are contributing to the operation, with Sri Lanka and Singapore the latest two countries to join on January 8 and 9, respectively.

Yet China has chosen not to participate in the coalition, despite the fact it has stated its concern about regional instability in the United Nations' Security Council.

"Any escalation of the crisis would also represent a threat to China's influence in the Middle East, one that could damage its growing interests in the region," writes Ahmed Aboudouh, associate fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Program, on January 9.

China's interests in the region

In recent years, Iran has become increasingly reliant on China -- its largest trade partner -- in the face of political and economic crises, diplomatic isolation and regional tensions, according to The Iran Primer, a project of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).

In March 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year "strategic co-operation pact" -- an expansion of Beijing's flagship trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

Beijing's footprint in the region peaked in March 2023 when it brokered a surprise rapprochement deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

"China is trying to translate its economic power into political power," Nasser Hadian, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, told The Iran Primer.

But many experts question China's neutrality and point to its record of exploiting vulnerable nations for its own strategic gain.

As tensions rise in the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on shipping, "China also has to acknowledge the concerns of its most consequential Middle East partners, Saudi Arabia and Iran -- concerns relating to Yemen's peace process," Aboudouh wrote.

"A collapse of the Yemen peace process would undoubtedly throw the China-brokered Saudi-Iran de-escalation process into the abyss," he said.

"The return of an intense rivalry between the two countries would, in turn, set back China's efforts to promote its vision for regional security under its Global Security Initiative: the Iran-Saudi deal is the bedrock of Beijing's regional vision," he said.

Chinese navy ignores distress calls

Other than the threats from the Iran-backed Houthis, Bab al-Mandeb faces security challenges due to the presence of Somali pirates -- threats that the Chinese also seem to be ignoring.

The US Navy in November detained five people believed to be Somali nationals after they boarded the merchant vessel (M/V) Central Park as it transited the Gulf of Aden, the Pentagon said.

After boarding the ship, the armed assailants attempted to access the cabin, but the crew were able to lock themselves in a safe area, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said November 27.

The assailants fled in a small boat after US guided missile destroyer USS Mason (DDG-87), allied ships and associated aircraft that are part of the CMF's counter-piracy task force (CTF 151), responded and demanded the vessel's release, he said.

However, three Chinese naval vessels ignored repeated distress calls from the Central Park after it came under attack, according to the Pentagon.

"Supposedly, those ships are there as part of a counter-piracy mission, but they did not respond," Ryder said.

US deterrence

Meanwhile, the US Department of Defense said it will continue to rely on the presence of its forces in the region -- including the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG) -- "to deter any state or non-state actor" from escalating tensions.

The Houthis' attacks have jeopardized the movement of critical food, fuel and humanitarian assistance throughout the world.

On January 9, the Iran-backed group launched the largest barrage of drones and missiles to date into the Southern Red Sea, towards international shipping lanes where dozens of merchant vessels were transiting, the Pentagon said.

"Eighteen one-way attack UAVs [drones], two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by a combined effort of F/A-18s from USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason (DDG 87), and the United Kingdom's HMS Diamond," it said in a statement.

"Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing," read a January 3 joint statement issued by the governments of the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United Kingdom.

"There is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels," it read, adding that these attacks "are a direct threat to the freedom of navigation that serves as the bedrock of global trade in one of the world's most critical waterways."

"These attacks threaten innocent lives from all over the world and constitute a significant international problem that demands collective action."

"The Houthis will bear the responsibility for the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, or the free flow of commerce in the region's critical waterways," the statement said.

Several US Navy destroyers from both the USS Gerald R. Ford and Eisenhower CSGs have been deployed to the Red Sea, where they have brought down Houthi drones and missiles.

The Eisenhower remains deployed to the Middle East and is in the Gulf of Aden east of Yemen, while the Ford left the eastern Mediterranean Sea on January 5 and is being redeployed "to its home port as scheduled to prepare for future deployments," the Navy said in a statement.

"The Department of Defense continually evaluates force posture globally and will retain extensive capability both in the Mediterranean and across the Middle East," the statement added.

The Navy said it was "collaborating with allies and partners to bolster maritime security in the region."