By Al-Fassel | 2023-12-13

In a bid to bolster its claim to three Gulf islands that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also claims as part of its territory, Iran has been offering incentives to encourage Iranians to move there and tip the demographic balance in its favor.

The Iranian regime's scheme comes amid heightened tensions in the Gulf, where the United States has deployed additional military personnel and assets to prevent a widening of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

As the United States and its allies attempt to keep the peace, Iran has been stoking the flames with its provocative actions to stake claim to the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa islands, which it also has used for military exercises.

In August, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) landed forces on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during military drills, with ships, drones and missile units taking part, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported.

"We always try for security and tranquility; it is our way," IRGC chief Gen. Hossein Salami proclaimed in a televised address during the drill that raised hackles in the UAE and among observers.

The islands are strategically valuable due to their location near the Strait of Hormuz, Responsible Statecraft said in an August 9, 2023, analysis, noting that Iran has mounted attacks from the islands during previous conflicts.

"Whichever country controls Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa can dominate the sea lanes coming in and out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz," it said.

If Iran were to control the islands, it would be able to use them to harass vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, observers said, though the heightened presence of the US military and its allies reduces this concern.

The UAE has continued to assert its claim to the islands, according to a statement posted on the UAE Embassy in Washington's website.

"The UAE has consistently and forcefully protested Iran's illegal occupation of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs from the moment Iranian military forces occupied the three islands on 30 November 1971," the statement said.

"Fifty years after the initial invasion, the UAE still holds out its offer to Iran to resolve this dispute," it said. "Unfortunately, Iran has rejected such suggestions, and continues to refuse to discuss sovereignty over any of the islands."

Meanwhile, Iran has been attempting to disrupt the status quo by "doubling down" on its ownership claim, The Telegraph said in a November 29 op-ed.

Demographic change

Iranian officials have been discussing plans to increase the number of Iranian residents on the islands -- only one of which is currently populated -- for some months, according to various media sources.

Iran reportedly has been offering up plots of land and incentives such as building loans and exemptions from military service if Iranian citizens commit to living on one of the islands for 12 years, according to local media reports.

Other incentives include forgoing the requirement that applicants should not have used any government housing facilities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and must not have owned another home.

If Iran goes forward with the plan, Abu Musa, which is the largest of the three disputed islands and has an estimated population of just 4,000, would see its population expand far beyond this, tilting the demographic balance.

"That would be a powerful argument that the islands should be Iranian territory," The Telegraph said.

Despite the Iranian government's offer, Iranian news website Fararu in August reported that the government would probably have a difficult time populating Abu Musa.

Fararu said its estimate showed that as of August, only 1,400 individuals would likely meet the requirements to receive free pieces of land on the island.

Later in August, however, ILNA news agency quoted Arsalan Maleki, an Interior Ministry official in the housing department, as saying the requirements for receiving free land on Abu Musa are subject to change.

A larger number of citizens may qualify for free land if such modifications were to take effect, he said at the time.

The Iranian government has not yet clarified if the requirements have changed.

Tehran has recently doubled down on its stance regarding the three islands, without much further rhetoric.

In mid-November, Iranian news website Entekhab published a lengthy article criticizing government officials for not paying enough attention to the UAE's claims of ownership.

Describing the claims as the UAE's "dangerous game," Entekhab added that Iranian authorities have failed to adequately respond to the claims, while detailing Iran's claim to the islands.

Heightened US presence

Between May and July, Iranian forces harassed and seized at least six merchant vessels in international waters off the coast of Oman.

Following the uptick in Iranian aggression, the US military in May increased the rotation of ships and aircraft patrolling the Strait of Hormuz.

On August 6, more than 3,000 US sailors and Marines arrived in the Middle East as part of a pre-announced Department of Defense deployment.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower ("Ike") and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike groups are currently deployed to the region as part of US efforts to deter Iran and its proxies.

The "Ike" carrier strike group on November 26 completed a transit of the Strait of Hormuz to enter the waters of the Gulf as the strike group continues to support US Central Command missions in the region.

The Ike's carrier strike group includes the destroyers USS Mason and USS Gravely, cruiser Philippine Sea and Carrier Air Wing 3.

Ike's presence in the Gulf "demonstrates the United States and its partners' commitment to the free flow of commerce, regional security and freedom of navigation," the US Navy said.