By Jana al-Masry | 2023-12-08

Egypt's leadership has acted with prudence in its efforts to contain the wheat crisis triggered by Russia's war on Ukraine and keep its people fed, analysts told Al-Fassel.

It has worked with a number of allied countries to obtain this staple crop in order to continue to provide subsidized bread, helping Egyptians cope with the sharp rise in the price of basic food items.

"The Egyptian leadership adopted a package of strategic decisions and measures, especially with regard to the agreements related to wheat," said al-Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies researcher Sami Gheit.

Wheat used to be imported almost exclusively from Russia and Ukraine, he told Al-Fassel.

After initiating the war on Ukraine, Russia withdrew from all international agreements that maintained the stability of the prices of this staple crop, he said, causing prices to rise to "insane" levels.

This had a negative effect on Egypt's general budget, he said.

Faced with a bread crisis, Egypt "took measures to secure wheat from allied countries such as France, Belgium and Kazakhstan to escape the Russian economic pincers that exploited the crisis to increase the profits," he said.

The speed with which Egypt made the decision to find alternatives to Russian and Ukrainian wheat shows its determination to avoid greater losses, Gheit said.

"This is evidenced by the abundance of wheat in the markets and the absence of an effect on bakeries designated for selling subsidized bread to citizens," he said.

"Even the wheat allocated for what in Egypt is referred to as 'tourist bread,' and allocated to other types of bread, sweets and other products, was abundantly available during the last period, and the local markets were not affected at all."

Mounting pressures on Egypt

"The Egyptian government, which is already facing high economic pressures, has to deal with additional pressures as a result of the influx of refugees from countries such as Sudan," said journalist and researcher Zeina Mahmoud.

There are an estimated four million Sudanese refugees in Egypt and roughly the same number of Syrians, she told Al-Fassel, in addition to refugees of other nationalities.

The cost of securing wheat has "become an additional burden because hard currencies, especially the dollar, are needed to import it," she said.

The current Egyptian leadership is working to secure basic commodities, including wheat, she said, and build a strategic stockpile to ensure that there will be no shortages in the markets.

"The Egyptian leadership took urgent and quick steps to boost local production, which reached approximately 10 million tons, or half of the local market's need of approximately 20 million tons," Mahmoud said.

This was achieved by enabling the expansion of wheat cultivation areas and with financial incentives and incentives to farmers to supply wheat to the government and not only the private sector, she said.

This initiative was well received by farmers, she said.

It also rationalized consumption and ensured no waste, especially in the delivery of the subsidized wheat to its actual beneficiaries, Mahmoud added.

Committed to feeding the people

The Egyptian leadership is fully committed to feeding the Egyptian people, said Cairo University faculty of politics and economics lecturer Ayman Ramzy.

This is "despite the financial pressures stemming from the Ukrainian crisis, the rise in wheat prices and the impact on supply routes," he told Al-Fassel.

"Egypt is one of the few countries around the world that still maintain significant subsidies for wheat to ensure bread is available to a large segment of the population -- more than 65 million people," he said.

Daily bread is provided "at very nominal prices to help them cope with the financial difficulties caused by the insane surges in the prices of basic commodities," Ramzy added.

Egypt's prudent decisions also have contributed to "opening quick supply lines for the import of wheat to sidestep the constant Russian obstructions, by opening new supply sources through allied countries," he added.

Despite all the pressures, especially from Russia's war, the Egyptian leadership has been steadfast, he said.

"It has been looking out for the interest of Egyptian citizens, ensuring that basic commodities are secured and that local markets are not affected by any resulting shortage," he said.

Leadership also has been working to halt the Egyptian pound's decline against foreign currencies, he added.