By Nohad Topalian | 2023-11-22

BEIRUT -- Many in Lebanon fear that a spillover of the Israel-Hamas war could lead to a serious shortage of essential food items, particularly wheat, which could trigger a bread crisis in the already-struggling nation.

Lebanon is already facing a wheat shortage crisis as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine, along with other countries in the region, such as Egypt.

Prices have skyrocketed amid Russia's war due to the disruption of supply routes and the rise in global wheat prices, with the Israel-Hamas war stoking fresh concerns and panic buying in Lebanon.

Fears about a spillover have driven most Lebanese to stock up on cereals such as flour and bulgur, and legumes, such as lentils, beans and chickpeas, in the event that they are no longer available in the markets.

"If war breaks out, the first thing we worry about is the cut-off of bread," said Abdo Chidiac, who resides in the Ellisar area of Mount Lebanon and buys his bread from the nearby Wooden Bakery.

"All I hope is that we don’t face this, because we can’t bear anymore," he told Al-Fassel.

"Anything but bread, it’s the only sustenance that we can’t do without," said Julie Samaha, as she purchased two bundles of bread and other baked goods from the same bakery.

The Wooden Bakery is part of a chain of that has "secured a stockpile of wheat that will be sufficient for weeks if imports are forcibly suspended," said Shadi Karam, who manages the chain's bakery in Ellisar.

Already facing shortages

The Beirut port explosion of August 4, 2020, damaged and destroyed wheat silos at the port, leaving Lebanon unable to build up a strategic stockpile of wheat.

The silos were demolished, and amid the country's ongoing political crisis and dysfunction, which many in Lebanon blame on Hizbullah, replacements have yet to be built.

Yet silos are needed in order to store a strategic stockpile in times of crisis, and the current stock of wheat, which is imported and stored by private companies, is sufficient for only two months, should a crisis develop.

Lebanon imports 600,000 tons of wheat annually, for an average of 50,000 tons per month. Before the Ukraine war, 60% of this was imported from Ukraine, and about 20% from Russia and Romania.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, however, just a small percentage is imported from Ukraine, with the largest portion now coming from Europe.

Following its financial collapse, Lebanon since June 2022 has been importing wheat with a $150 million loan from the World Bank.

The World Bank funds are allocated as part of the emergency response plan to secure wheat supplies, while the Central Bank has stopped subsidizing the import of wheat, fuel and medicines.

Expediting food imports

The Lebanese government "took proactive measures by importing about 60,000 tons of wheat, a stock that will be sufficient for four months," caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade Amin Salam said November 8.

The government is asking "all relevant ministries to finalize wheat import transactions as well as all other transactions of other food items," he said, following a meeting of the Ministerial Committee for Food Security.

Salam said emphasis has been placed on expediting food import transactions and preventing delays in the entry of any goods through any land or sea port facility, by speeding up the customs inspection and clearance processes.

Syndicate of Bakery Owners head Antoine Seif told Al-Fassel that the current wheat stock "is sufficient for only two months."

"So if any potential security event or war leads to the imposition of a naval blockade on Lebanon, we will be in trouble, because Lebanon no longer has silos to store a strategic stock of wheat for emergencies," he said.

He said the syndicate "developed a proactive emergency plan, whereby each bakery has its own stock of flour and raw materials used in bread making, depending on how much its storage spaces and warehouses can store."

Stocks of essential food items, wheat and fuel in Lebanon "are currently sufficient for a period ranging between two and four months," economist Azza al-Hajj Hassan told Al-Fassel.

She stressed the necessity of taking into account "the state of panic currently gripping citizens and their desire to stockpile food items, wheat and flour."

As people stockpile supplies in panic, she explained, warehouses are emptied of their stocks.

Run on warehouses

Grain warehouses across Lebanon that sell both wholesale and retail are witnessing a rush of customers, among them Noha Farhat, who said she was driven by her fear that a war "could sever Lebanon’s ties with the world."

Farhat, who lives in the Beit al-Shaar area of Mount Lebanon's Metn district, told Al-Fassel she has four children under the age of 10.

"I have to take precautions and store all kinds of grains, especially flour, so that if we are exposed to a war or any security disturbance I will have something to feed them," she said.

"I know how to make bread at home, so I bought a sufficient amount of flour to prepare a large amount of bread," she added.

The possibility of a war breaking out in Lebanon "sent people into panic," al-Hassadoun (Harvesters) warehouse owner Elie Damian told Al-Fassel.

"They began to stockpile materials in large quantities, each according to his financial capacity, and most of them focused on flour and grains," he said.

"People are very apprehensive, especially those who have children, so they are rushing to buy flour and grains," he said.