By Faisal Abu Bakr | 2023-12-07

ADEN -- The Iran-backed Houthis have continued to amass a stockpile of weapons even during a period of relative calm in Yemen, taking advantage of the truce to build up their forces, experts told Al-Fassel.

Iran has continued to smuggle weapons to its proxies, the Houthis, in violation of an arms embargo, as the group's presence along the Red Sea serves to advance the Islamic Republic's agenda and expansionist policies, they said.

In a November report to the United Nations Security Council, which covers the period from December 1, 2022 to August 31, 2023, the Panel of Experts on Yemen noted some worrying trends, despite relative calm in the conflict.

"Provocative and confrontational content" has been disseminated by both sides, they said, with the Houthis in particular issuing "numerous statements" threatening they would resume hostilities, should their demands not be met.

"The Houthis continue to refuse to engage in any direct talks with the government of Yemen," the panel said, as they "persist with their demands."

"They also displayed their military capabilities in several parades and exercises to exert more pressure" on the government of Yemen and the Arab coalition that is supporting it, the panel said.

Even before the start of the Israel-Hamas war that has seen the Houthis escalate their threats and attacks on international shipping lanes and commercial vessels, tensions had been brewing.

Tension in Red Sea

"Tension is growing in the Red Sea, with the Houthis establishing a naval presence on Kamaran Island, off al-Hodeidah," the panel said in its report, pointing to maritime security incidents involving a bulk carrier and two yachts.

The Houthis also have engaged in "large-scale violations" of the arms embargo, with the group displaying a variety of weapons during military parades held in al-Hodeidah and Sanaa in September 2022, it said.

These include "ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, waterborne improvised explosive devices and hundreds of 4x4 vehicles converted for carrying various weapon systems," the panel said.

The government of Yemen has intercepted "254 uncrewed aerial vehicles, 100 engines for uncrewed aerial vehicles, nearly five tons of explosive precursor chemicals, two diver propulsion vehicles" and other military equipment, it said.

"Between December 2022 and January 2023, several thousand assault rifles, a large quantity of ammunition, and electro-optical surveillance system and medium-range ballistic missile components were seized in international waters."

These seizures "show that the Houthis are drastically reinforcing their land and naval military capabilities, including under water, as well as their arsenal of missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles," in violation of the arms embargo.

'An Iranian strategy'

"The continued flow of weapons to the Houthis is an Iranian strategy" that is more important to it than any relationship or peace agreement is, Abaad Center for Strategic Studies director Abdul Salam Mohammed told Al-Fassel.

Iran's overarching strategy is to ensure that the Houthis remain a force in the southern Arabian Peninsula that is capable of threatening trade corridors and blocking Bab al-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, he said.

"The smuggling of weapons to the Houthis will continue, even if the Houthis need to directly purchase them from Iran after the war ends and air traffic control returns to the way it was before the war," Mohammed said.

He noted that the Houthis have developed new weapon technology and have strengthened their naval power, with a fleet that includes drone boats, some of which the group has rigged with explosives to use in its attacks.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) experts in Houthi-controlled areas have meanwhile assisted in the manufacture and modification of missiles and other weapons, he said.

It is clear that the Houthis, and their backer Iran, are not serious about the truce that many hope will pave the way for the revival of peace negotiations, or at least for de-escalation, political analyst Fares al-Beel told Al-Fassel.

"Despite the Houthis' talk about peace with Saudi Arabia, they have not stopped mobilizing, which is done in lockstep with Iran's strategies and messaging," he said.

"The continued escalation is clear evidence that peace is impossible with the Iran-backed Houthis," al-Beel added. "Iran will not easily give up its support for the Houthis, either, as they "serve its interests and objectives."

Arms smuggling continues

Iran has "never stopped supplying the Houthis with weapons, whether they are ballistic missiles, drones or naval vessels," Yemen's Deputy Minister of Justice Faisal al-Majeedi told Al-Fassel.

The past seven years have revealed that many of the weapons in the Houthis' possession are Iranian, he noted, as proven via analysis of the weapons' debris as well as the statements of IRGC commanders themselves.

The Houthis are a means for Iranian sabotage in the region, he said, pointing to the spate of attacks the group has been carrying out in the Red Sea.

In the most recent attack, the Houthis on Wednesday (December 6) said they had fired a batch of ballistic missiles at Israel following Israeli military reports projectiles had been intercepted over the Red Sea, AFP reported.

A US destroyer shot down multiple drones earlier in the week while assisting commercial ships in the Red Sea that were targeted by attacks from Yemen.

"It is clear that these attacks, whether in previous years or recent, in conjunction with the events in Gaza, are being carried out with real Iranian will and Iranian planning," al-Majeedi said.