By Faisal Abu Bakr | 2023-11-11

ADEN -- The Houthis' involvement in the Hamas-Israeli war will prolong the war in Yemen and complicate ongoing dialogue to seek a resolution to the conflict on the Arabian Peninsula, analysts said.

This will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, they told Al-Fassel.

A virtual symposium hosted by the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies on November 1 discussed the impact of the Hamas-Israeli war on the Yemeni crisis and peace process efforts, in the wake of the Houthis' attacks on Israel.

The Houthi attacks on Israel do not present much of a threat to Israel -- but they do threaten peace in Yemen, said symposium participants.

They discussed the direct and future repercussions of the new Houthi attacks on the course of the Saudi-Houthi talks and the likelihood that the Houthis would get involved in the conflict.

They also discussed the extent of international commitment to resolving the Yemeni crisis, in the event that the Hamas-Israeli war worsens or spreads.

The United States on Wednesday (November 8) confirmed that the Houthis had shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone, a senior US defense official said, confirming an earlier claim by the Iran-backed group.

"A US military MQ-9 remotely-piloted aircraft was shot down off the coast of Yemen by Houthi forces," the official said.

On Monday, the Houthis launched a fresh drone attack on Israel as they stepped up a campaign of disruptive strikes amid the Hamas-Israeli war.

The Houthis on November 1 said they had launched a "large batch of drones" towards Israel, and on October 31, the Houthis claimed an attack with drones and ballistic missiles on Israel and pledged more attacks.

They said they had fired drones and ballistic missiles previously on three separate operations.

On October 27, Israel said it had intercepted drones launched by the Houthis, and on October 19, the US Navy said it shot down three land-attack cruise missiles and "several" drones launched by the Houthis, likely targeting Israel.

'Inevitable consequences'

The Houthis' attacks come in response to an October 10 speech delivered by their leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who claimed he was in full coordination with the so-called "axis of resistance" regarding the events in Gaza.

Al-Houthi affirmed his group's readiness to participate in the Hamas-Israeli war with missile and drone strikes, and other available options.

The attacks send a political message "about the extent of the involvement and commitment of the parties of the Iranian axis to escalation," Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies director Majid al-Madhaji said during the symposium.

The recent attacks are the Houthis' first such involvement as part of the so-called "axis of resistance," al-Madhaji pointed out.

While vaunting the supposed "unity" of the "axis" -- Iran-aligned militias in various countries of the region -- Iran and Hizbullah have stressed that Hamas acted alone in its October 7 terrorist attack on Israel.

The Houthis will face inevitable consequences for their actions in support of Hamas, al-Madhaji said, whether political or military -- or both.

On the political level, the attacks could "restart talk about designating the Houthis as a terrorist group," he said.

And on a military level, he said, some leaders of the Houthis or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders present in Yemen may become targets.

Suspension of Saudi-Houthi talks

Before the recent outbreak of the Hamas-Israeli war, Saudi Arabia was seeking to "close the Yemen file," Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies researcher Maysaa Shuja al-Deen said during the symposium.

But the Hamas-Israeli war "halted the Saudi-Houthi talks, for now," she said.

The Hamas-Israel war "unmasked the Houthis and once again proved their absolute subservience to Iran at the expense of the interests of the Yemeni people," political analyst Mahmoud al-Taher told Al-Fassel.

This threatens "to scuttle any regional understandings regarding finding a peaceful solution to the Yemen war and will prolong the war that has led to the severest humanitarian tragedy in the world," he said.

"Houthi-Saudi relations suffered a shock after the Houthi attack on the Saudi border about a month ago, in which Bahraini soldiers were killed," said Abaad Center for Strategic Studies director Abdul Salam Mohammed.

"The Houthis' attacks on Israel do not threaten Israeli security because they do not have destructive power," he told Al-Fassel, adding that they also lack "the effect and impact required to elicit a direct reaction."

On the other hand, Mohammed said, the danger of the Houthis' intervention in the Hamas-Israeli war would be "if Iran asks the Houthis to intervene" and if they target US or international interests in the region and Bab al-Mandeb.

He said this has the potential to turn the Saudi-Houthi rapprochement into "severe discord, and consequently complicate the process of finding solutions to the crisis in Yemen."

The recurrence of Houthi attacks on Israel may put the group back on international terrorist lists, he said, "and this has direct negative effects on it, on Yemen, and on any international efforts to find a peaceful solution in Yemen."

The preoccupation of politicians in the region with the Hamas-Israeli war "will turn their attention away from the Yemeni issue," political analyst Faisal Ahmed told Al-Fassel.

At the same time, he said, "the Houthi attacks on Israel, even if they were ineffectual, will push Yemen farther from solutions."

Ahmed warned against prolonging the war in Yemen, which has dragged on for nine years, "and has devoured everything, as Yemeni citizens cannot tolerate more than that."

He also expressed concern that "the continuation of the [Hamas-Israeli war] could reignite the fighting in the Yemeni arena."