Security
Hizbullah’s ‘existential’ war may be its last
Hizbullah claims its war with Israel is existential, but analysts agree heavy losses and loss of popular support mean this will be its last.
![Displaced families set up small tents along the Beirut Corniche in Lebanon, March 12, 2026, amid a new escalation in the Israel–Hizbullah conflict and wider regional tensions that have driven a new wave of displacement. [Toufic Rmeiti/Middle East Images via AFP]](/gc1/images/2026/03/29/55238-lebanon_dispalced-600_384.webp)
By Nohad Topalian |
Hizbullah's retaliatory missile attacks against Israel, following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have created an existential threat for the group.
Hizbullah is miscalculating its heavy losses from military operations, which intensified after the group violated the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.
On March 13, Hizbullah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem called the conflict an "existential battle," but analysts unanimously assess this will be the group's last war.
"Hizbullah is waging its final, losing battle, defying the Lebanese state's designation of it as an illegitimate entity and a faction operating under the orders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)," security expert and retired Brigadier General Saeed Qazah, told Al-Fassel.
Defiance of government decisions
Hizbullah dragged Lebanon into an open-ended war, defying the government's ban on military activities after launching missiles at Israel.
In August 2025, the government committed to having the Lebanese Army disarm Hizbullah and dismantle its military infrastructure and weapons arsenal in the Litani River.
Analysts said Hizbullah's retained weaponry undermines the army's role, and is a major obstacle preventing Lebanon from securing military, financial and international aid.
Hizbullah is sacrificing Lebanon's future to execute the Iranian regime's agenda, functioning as a mere instrument.
Its military mobilization was driven by the IRGC Quds Force orders and Tehran's vacuum, not the Lebanese Ministry of Defense, shattering its defense claims.
Hizbullah's military adventurism isolates Lebanon, undermining its economic recovery and completely paralyzing its airspace, maritime trade and commercial activity.
The state is unable to shoulder the war's burdens, which caused massive destruction, a heavy toll of casualties and displaced hundreds of thousands of residents.
Loss of Hizbullah’s base
"Hizbullah's adventurism has cost it a major segment of the Shia community, most notably the Amal Movement, and its other allies," Hadi Murad, a political activist, and Shia opponent of Hizbullah, said.
"A significant rift has now emerged between the group and its public, who actively oppose this war," he told Al-Fassel.
The Shia political sphere is no longer a unified front, marking a significant and massive shift.
The group has been reduced to a faction clinging to power by instilling fear within its own community, not popular consensus.
"Hizbullah's narrative of an existential battle for the Shia is false. in reality, Hizbulah is exhausting its entire missile arsenal in what is undoubtedly its own last battle," Murad said.
Hizbullah's initiation of an unwanted war confirms its status as a rogue militia willing to sacrifice Lebanese sovereignty for the Iranian regime.
I stand with the State—not the statelet—and I support the Taif Agreement, specifically regarding unarmed political parties. Furthermore, I reject any threat from any quarter, whether Lebanese or non-Lebanese, and I am prepared to fight alongside the State to restore full sovereignty. Thank you.
Their rule over Lebanon will soon come to an end—they are the very ones who oppressed, murdered, and terrorized every segment of the nation. They went so far as to claim that Allah Himself had commissioned them to perpetrate this injustice. Consequently, they were left with no fans [TN: alt: supporters] save for those who stood to gain from them by pocketing what they euphemistically termed honourable money. We have witnessed how their leaders reveled in immense wealth, leading lives of sheer extravagance, luxury, and indulgence. Such is the ultimate fate of those who lie and employ false slogans to achieve their ends.
Where was your voice for a year and a half while Lebanon was being bombarded and its homes destroyed? Hizbullah did not violate the ceasefire, because there was no ceasefire to begin with.
I think that the writer is unfair and unrealistic in his words. The Shiites will continue to respect Hizbullah for its sacrifices and noble and honourable positions, no matter how prejudiced against it those who oppose it are. Allah will give it victory. The outcome and the inheritance of the land are for the pious.
Israel's perspective in full? Where is objectivity?
Israel has been attacking Lebanon for 50 years before Hizbullah, and throughout history, resistance has been legitimate and considered the noblest and most honourable act.
Note: All previous Lebanese governments openly supported the resistance, except for the current government, which came to power through the American embassy.
A point of view.
I didn't like the article simply because it's nonsense and contrary to the truth. Hizbullah has a large Lebanese consensus, not only among Shiites, but among all sects (I am a Maronite Christian). And I tell you: Don't dream too much, because when you wake up, may Allah help you!
There is no doubt that Hizbullah's violation of the ceasefire agreement caused this war, not Israel. For fifteen months, Hizbullah has been killing and brutalizing the Israeli people, and by Allah, it is a sin. And there is no doubt that Mr. Murad, the dishonourable and undignified, has a vision contrary to reality because he is one of those who believe in complete and unconditional subservience. He deserves the worst respect.
If there hadn't been aggression against the Lebanese state, there wouldn't have been resistance. But when there is defeat, blame begins, and when there is victory, celebrations begin.
However, there must be coordination between the leadership and the fighters who gave the orders and whom the leadership no longer contacts. They responded, but the leadership betrayed them, just as it betrayed the people who supported it since its founding, and those who remain loyal to the cause. The leadership silences them with mere necessities. Let us be rational and grant the state its right to defend itself, even with simple weapons, so that the aggression against the army and the Lebanese state can be addressed in international forums.
Hizbullah exists and its popular support is stronger than before. Stop spreading lies.
Everything in the report is incorrect. There is no rift between the resistance and the people of southern Lebanon in general, and especially between Amal and Hizbullah. They are united in the fight against the criminal Zionist enemy. The resistance's first strike was preemptive, launched after the enemy decided to launch a military operation against Lebanon, a fact acknowledged by the Israeli enemy itself. It seems the report's author either doesn't understand or doesn't want to see reality as it is.
The war started because the enemy did not abide by the ceasefire.
Had the enemy complied and withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, it would have annulled the legitimacy of the resistance.
A frank article marked by rationality and wisdom.