By Nohad Topalian | 2026-03-29

Hizbullah's retaliatory missile attacks against Israel, following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have created an existential threat for the group.

Hizbullah is miscalculating its heavy losses from military operations, which intensified after the group violated the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.

On March 13, Hizbullah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem called the conflict an "existential battle," but analysts unanimously assess this will be the group's last war.

"Hizbullah is waging its final, losing battle, defying the Lebanese state's designation of it as an illegitimate entity and a faction operating under the orders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)," security expert and retired Brigadier General Saeed Qazah, told Al-Fassel.

Defiance of government decisions

Hizbullah dragged Lebanon into an open-ended war, defying the government's ban on military activities after launching missiles at Israel.

In August 2025, the government committed to having the Lebanese Army disarm Hizbullah and dismantle its military infrastructure and weapons arsenal in the Litani River.

Analysts said Hizbullah's retained weaponry undermines the army's role, and is a major obstacle preventing Lebanon from securing military, financial and international aid.

Hizbullah is sacrificing Lebanon's future to execute the Iranian regime's agenda, functioning as a mere instrument.

Its military mobilization was driven by the IRGC Quds Force orders and Tehran's vacuum, not the Lebanese Ministry of Defense, shattering its defense claims.

Hizbullah's military adventurism isolates Lebanon, undermining its economic recovery and completely paralyzing its airspace, maritime trade and commercial activity.

The state is unable to shoulder the war's burdens, which caused massive destruction, a heavy toll of casualties and displaced hundreds of thousands of residents.

Loss of Hizbullah’s base

"Hizbullah's adventurism has cost it a major segment of the Shia community, most notably the Amal Movement, and its other allies," Hadi Murad, a political activist, and Shia opponent of Hizbullah, said.

"A significant rift has now emerged between the group and its public, who actively oppose this war," he told Al-Fassel.

The Shia political sphere is no longer a unified front, marking a significant and massive shift.

The group has been reduced to a faction clinging to power by instilling fear within its own community, not popular consensus.

"Hizbullah's narrative of an existential battle for the Shia is false. in reality, Hizbulah is exhausting its entire missile arsenal in what is undoubtedly its own last battle," Murad said.

Hizbullah's initiation of an unwanted war confirms its status as a rogue militia willing to sacrifice Lebanese sovereignty for the Iranian regime.