By Nohad Topalian | 2025-12-06

Analysts said Hizbullah's heavy losses and the killing of its leaders since the October 8, 2023 conflict have left it incapable of executing Iranian orders and achieving the Iranian regime's regional strategy.

They said that Hizbullah is in a very weak position following the blows dealt to Iran and the complete collapse of its regional proxy network.

Hizbullah has yet to respond to Iranian calls for retaliation over the November 23, 2025 Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs that killed its chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai.

On November 25, Iranian Expediency Discernment Council member Mohsen Rezaei urged Hizbullah to reconsider its patience and restraint toward Israel.

Speaking to The National, a Hizbullah political source downplayed Iranian calls for "revenge" over the killing of Tabatabai, saying that the group's decision not to respond serves Lebanon's position.

Iran continues its longstanding strategy using Hizbullah and other proxies to carry out missile attacks and retaliatory strikes, threatening the region's stability.

Declining military capabilities

"Hizbullah no longer possesses the military capability to retaliate in a way that would ignite a major war, largely because it lost the necessary military supply line with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime," political writer Marwan al-Amin told Al-Fassel.

"Hizbullah engaging in another military battle would destroy what remains of the group, especially given its heavy losses in the last war and the killing of its leaders and fighters," he added.

Al-Amin noted that Hizbullah's lack of response is also linked to "the absence of a religious mandate from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei."

"The losses, security challenges, and internal breaches plaguing Hizbullah since October 2023 have directly resulted in a decline in Iran's ability to exert control over the group," he added.

Collapse of Iran's proxies

Despite Iran's provision of huge financial and military resources, Hizbullah’s recent losses have caused deep disarray within the group, revealing that Iran's reliance on its proxies in the region is now facing significant challenges and obstacles.

The collapse of the Iranian regime's proxy network prevents Hizbullah from implementing Iran's agenda in the region, al-Amin said.

"This collapse revealed the fragility of Iran's influence and the resulting decline of Hizbullah's role in its regional strategy, especially considering Hizbullah has suffered irreparable losses," political writer Nawfal Daou told Al-Fassel.

"A response to Tabatabai's killing is deemed likely to destroy what remains of Hizbullah," he said.

Nawfal noted that Hizbullah's current priority is to "maintain a minimum level of support within its base."