By Anas al-Bar | 2025-11-01

A contingent of US forces will be retained at Iraq's Ain al-Asad airbase to assist in containing the threat posed by the The "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS).

To address the risk of an ISIS resurgence, an advisory contingent of 250 to 350 American advisors will stay. Their mission is to assist Iraqi forces in tracking ISIS activity and ensuring the group cannot use eastern Syria's security gaps to rebuild.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced on October 20 that the advisors would also coordinate with US forces at the al-Tanf base in Syria, a measure intended to prevent ISIS from exploiting the regional security vacuum.

A long-term security partnership was established between Iraq and the United States under an agreement signed last year.

Formalizing a transition in the fight against ISIS, the agreement establishes a post-combat phase dedicated to providing Iraqi forces with advisory support, logistics, intelligence-sharing, and broader cooperation.

Strategic corridors

The US advisory role is "critical for maintaining security stability," strategic analyst Tariq al-Shammari said.

"The presence of a US force supports efforts to maintain full control over a vast geographic corridor stretching from Iraq’s Anbar Desert to Syria's eastern desert (Badiya)," he told Al-Fassel.

"ISIS had long exploited this terrain as supply corridors and routes, moving fighters and smuggling weapons across the border and using the area as safe havens and staging grounds for its elements," he said.

The group "has lost the Western Desert" in Iraq due to military pressures by the Iraqi army and the US-led coalition on its positions in Wadi Horan, al-Jazeera, and Upper Euphrates, he added.

However, the current security vacuum in Syrian territory "raises concerns that ISIS may regroup in remote hideouts there and plan coordinated attacks," al-Shammari said.

He stressed the need for continued US advisory missions at Ain al-Asad as a key link with US forces combating ISIS in eastern Syria, especially those stationed at al-Tanf.

Securing the borders

With US operational support and advisory expertise, Iraqi security forces have effectively broken up ISIS' attempts to rebuild its networks.

The estimated number of ISIS members is now around 2,500, with the bulk of the group operating from Syria. Military analyst Safaa al-Aasam said "that these forces are too weak to pose a serious threat to Iraq."

"The country’s borders with Syria are secure, with no recorded infiltration attempts," he told Al-Fassel.

He noted that Iraqi forces "were able to secure the western desert and are currently cracking down on the remaining ISIS cells hidden in valleys and mountain areas, dealing painful blows to their positions."