By Faisal Abu Bakr | 2025-02-17

ADEN -- The "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) faces significant obstacles as it attempts to reorient its operations toward Africa after suffering major territorial and strategic defeats across the Middle East, experts said.

These include local resistance, international military pressure and competition from other armed groups, they told Al-Fassel.

Recent US airstrikes in Somalia killed 14 ISIS operatives, including Ahmed Maeleninine, a key recruiter responsible for deploying operatives to the United States and Europe, according to the US Africa Command (AFRICOM).

The February 1 strikes targeted cave complexes about 50 miles southeast of Bosaso, AFRICOM said.

In another setback for the group, Mali's army on January 4 arrested a leading figure in ISIS's Sahel branch, Mahamad Ould Erkehile (aka "Abu Rakia").

ISIS leader Abu Hash was captured during the same operation in north Mali, and several of the group's fighters were killed, AFP reported.

The military accused Abu Rakia of coordinating attacks against civilians in the Menaka and Gao regions and assaults on army positions.

ISIS has designated Africa as a new frontier for expansion in recent years, despite having relatively few members there, according to Sudanese researcher Amal Mahmoud.

Regional challenges

ISIS's pivot to Africa follows its defeat in the Middle East, where it has been crippled by a combination of military operations and financial restrictions.

"ISIS lost its influence in the Middle East due to intense attacks from the US-led international coalition, combined with military operations by Iraqi, Syrian and Kurdish forces," an Egyptian political analyst told Al-Fassel.

The targeting of ISIS's financial networks and illegal oil trade severely limited its ability to fund its operations, he said, requesting that his name be withheld.

The 2019 death of the group's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, sparked internal divisions that have weakened the group's cohesion, he said.

The challenges to establishing a foothold in Africa include fierce competition from al-Qaeda affiliates and pressure from US and international forces, he said.

"ISIS's losses in Syria and Iraq were a major blow that pushed them to seek new territories, including some African countries," political analyst Mahmoud al-Taher told Al-Fassel.

He noted that while Africa's security vulnerabilities create potential opportunities for extremist groups, ISIS faces strong popular rejection due to its brutal tactics.

Al-Qaeda and its Africa affiliates, among them al-Shabaab in Somalia, "will pose an obstacle to ISIS's expansion due to fierce competition between extremist groups," he said.