By Al-Fassel and AFP | 2023-12-02

PARIS -- Tourists are abandoning the Middle East region because of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, putting at risk nations like Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt, whose economies depend heavily upon international tourism.

In Petra, the jewel of the Jordanian desert, where 900,000 tourists visited last year, "you will see few numbers of visitors" although there were thick crowds at the start of October, said tour guide Amer Nezami.

"Combo tour trips that include Jordan, West Bank and Israel stopped completely, and dozens of reserved tour trips were cancelled, especially groups from the United States," Nezami, 46, told AFP.

At the front desk of the Petra Palace Hotel, Safi Nawafleh confirmed that the major hotels saw a 25-50% drop in reservations since the outbreak of war and said "some small hotels have no guests."

Gaza-based Hamas terrorists attacked southern Israel on October 7, triggering retaliatory Israeli bombing and a ground offensive in Gaza.

Lebanon's southern border has also seen deadly skirmishes, mainly between Israel and Hamas ally Hizbullah.

Intense fighting erupted again in Gaza on Friday (December 1) following a seven-day truce during which Hamas freed 80 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners, and more aid entered Gaza, where about 80% of the population is displaced and short of food and water.

Before the October 7 attack, the Middle East was enjoying a boom in visitors, posting the biggest gain among global regions during the January-July period with arrivals exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 20%, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

But "the war has dried out travel demand to Israel" and it "has a ripple effect on neighboring destinations, with countries in the Middle East suffering from a heavy decrease in new bookings," said Olivier Ponti at ForwardKeys, a company that analyzes travel trends.

Some sun and sea travelers are passing up Türkiye and Egypt for southern European destinations like Spain, Greece and Portugal, he added.

Impact depends on duration

At the beginning of November, S&P Global Ratings said that Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, which are direct neighbors of Israel and Gaza, would suffer the most from the drop in tourism.

It noted that tourism accounted for 26% of Lebanon's foreign receipts last year. The figure was 21% for Jordan and 12% for Egypt. For Israel, the figure was only 3%.

"Since the war between Israel and Hamas, several tour agencies in Egypt have reported cancellations of around half of the bookings for November and December, particularly from European travellers," noted S&P.

It added that several airlines have suspended flights to Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hizbullah militants have been trading artillery fire with Israeli troops across the border.

On November 28, EasyJet warned that the conflict would impact its earnings as flights to Egypt, Israel and Lebanon (two destinations suspended) represent 4% of its capacity.

MSC Cruises has cancelled the winter operations of its cruise ships Orchestra and Sinfonia, which were due to ply the Red Sea and put into Israel's Mediterranean port of Haifa.

For the moment, S&P does not foresee a considerable decline in tourist visits to Türkiye, because of its geographical distance from the conflict, or a major impact to the United Arab Emirates, where tourist arrivals are above pre-pandemic levels.

But "much will depend on how long the conflict lasts and whether it will spill over into the broader region," said S&P.

Suleiman Farajat, an advisor in the Jordanian prime minister's office, said that if the conflict continues, "the upcoming tourism season will be in danger."

But if it ends soon, he expects it could return to normal by September 2024.

Beyond tourism, if the war continues, it could deal a heavy blow to the world economy, especially if it draws in other countries, Wall Street titans told a Saudi investor forum October 24.